A killing & a tipping point

Last Friday’s attack on Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his leadership represents the beginning of an era that could radically alter the military and political balance in West Asia. A senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was among those killed in the same attack. As with Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, there is an Iranian component in the Israeli information-collecting process. This is noteworthy.Bibi’s calculations | This represents a significant turning point not only for the future of Hezbollah but also for all regional geopolitical balances and power struggles. First, Netanyahu is pushing all the buttons in the run-up to the US elections, which means both support for Trump’s campaign and finishing what Netanyahu started before the possible election of Kamala Harris.Netanyahu has stepped up his fight against organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah. This strategy is critical both to strengthen his own political future and to enhance Israel’s security. The Western world, especially US and UK, continues to provide Netanyahu’s govt with all kinds of political and military support. This further encourages Netanyahu and leads him to pursue an aggressive policy. As a result, Netanyahu is rapidly advancing in his project to create a world without Hamas and Hezbollah, which will satiate him and Israel, both politically and in terms of security. Hezbollah’s Future | Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah was a major force not only in Lebanon but in the entire region. His loss will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the strategic vision and operational capacity of the organisation. We have no concrete data on how Hezbollah’s new governance structure will take shape. How long will the process of recovery and reorganisation take? In the meantime, how will coordination with Iran and other resistance forces be ensured?In this respect, it will be difficult for the other components of Iran’s Axis of Resistance to formulate a coordinated course of action and strategy in this process. This will take time. Will the current power structure Hezbollah has achieved under Nasrallah’s charismatic leadership – acting as the brains of the organisation, but more importantly developing and strengthening relations with Iran – be maintained? Hezbollah’s identity was closely tied to Nasrallah, making a full restoration unlikely. This development will weaken not only Hezbollah’s future but also Iran’s influence in the region. Iran needs a strong ally like Hezbollah to maintain its influence in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. In this context, the continuity of Iran’s support for Hezbollah and how it will be shaped under the new leadership is also a matter of curiosity. If Iran fails to provide Hezbollah with the support it expects or if the new Hezbollah leadership is distant in its relations with Iran, this will have a negative impact not only on Hezbollah’s position in the region but also on Iran’s. Perhaps it will create an opportunity for different cooperation.Shifts in the Shiite world:Nasrallah’s death could lead to new balances in the Shiite world. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s power and influence relied heavily on Nasrallah’s personal leadership ability. His loss creates uncertainties over the strategic direction and operational capacity of the organisation. How this relationship will continue is critical for the future of the organisation. Naturally, this development will also have important consequences for the Shiite world. Cards will be reshuffled in the countries of the region, especially in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria. As is known, Nasrallah’s death was greeted with great joy, especially among Sunni extremist organisations in Syria. In fact, this was not a surprise. Radical groups celebrated and distributed baklava and halva as if to celebrate the death. This event alone could lead to the escalation of new sectarian conflicts.Iran’s loss of face | It is important to note that Iran is now the main target for Netanyahu and Israel. Especially after the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran’s ability to respond to Israel remains in question. The ambiguity of the new Iranian leadership’s policy towards Israel still prevents us from predicting what Iran might do after Nasrallah’s death. Will Iran continue to exert its influence in the region through the Houthis? Will it close the Strait of Hormuz to oil trade to show that it is a regional power? Will Iran accelerate its nuclear weapons programme, claiming that it feels threatened?Israel could launch more intensive attacks on Iranian targets in Syria. Hezbollah, bleeding in Lebanon, could withdraw its forces from Syria back to Lebanon. If Iran fails to provide Hezbollah with the support it expects, will the new Hezbollah leadership after Nasrallah be able to distance itself from Iran? Or can Hezbollah survive in Lebanon without Iranian support? How would this affect the political power of the Gulf states in Lebanon?Whatever policy Iran pursues, its influence in both Syria and Iraq will be called into question. In this respect, Iran needs to make a move without delay. Delaying this move will mean that Iran’s real power will be questioned. It will also mean that Iran’s regional effectiveness will be questioned. At this point, Israel’s next moves against Iran will also be keenly watched. Khamenei’s relocation on Saturday to protect himself from a possible Israeli attack and his state of alert show that even Iran is expecting a new move from Israel. Tel Aviv will be the main actor in determining the new process after Nasrallah.The writer is a former Turkish diplomat