Safeguarding collapse of human civilization from climate change

Introduction

According to Traditional Economic Theory, Energy is the main driving force behind economic growth of a country, as, while, on the one hand, growth of an economy leads to increase in energy consumption, a shortfall in supply of energy, constraints economic growth. Availability, accessibility, and affordability of energy resources are therefore considered the critical factors for economic growth.

Examination of the relation between energy consumption and economic growth has assumed renewed importance recently in the light of the growing concerns about global warming caused by rising consumption of energy resources. Understanding this relation is therefore considered crucial with a view to designing suitable energy policies aimed at:
1. Conserving energy, and;
2. Controlling global warming without adversely affecting economic growth at the same time.

Prediction of likely world-wide total energy demand for electricity by 2040.

According to World Energy Council, a global forum for thought-leadership and tangible engagement, with the mission to promote sustainable supply, and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people, electricity is expected to witness the largest relative increase in world-wide total energy demand by 2040.

Measuring total final consumption of energy

Total final consumption of energy is represented by demand for energy carriers by the end-use sectors. An energy carrier is a substance containing energy convertible to useful mechanical or electrical energy, the most common type of energy carrier being fuel, such as gasoline, natural gas, or coal.

India’s present consumption of energy

Currently, India is the fastest growing economy in the world with its dependence on energy resources continuing to mount. India’s Share in the global energy demand has reportedly almost doubled between 2000 & 2013 & the country is poised to experience more energy demand growth than any other country over the next decade due to its large population and rising demand from all sectors, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.

India’s Electricity demand in future

India’s electricity demand is expected to continue to grow owing to increased economic expansion, urbanisation, and increased access to electrical appliances. In 2015, India ranked 3rd in the world’s total energy consumption with a share of 6.4%. As per World Energy Outlook 2021 of International Energy Agency (IEA), the country’s share is likely to increase to about 9.8% by 2050.

Goal to reach net-zero target by 2047

India’s heavy dependence on imported oil (90 %) and industrial coking coal (80 %) exposes the country to the volatility in global energy markets, impacting foreign exchange reserves & economy-wide inflation.

India’s three largest energy consuming sectors include:
1. Power,
2. Transport, and;
3. Industry.

These collectively account for more than 80% of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions.

While India’s electricity consumption is expected to increase nearly 5-fold to over 6500 TWh/Yr, a unit of energy that represents one trillion watts of power used for one hour by 2047, CO2 emissions from power, transport, and industrial sectors are expected to peak in the early 2030s, before dropping to approximately 800 million tons/year.

It is opined, India can achieve Energy Independence through aggressive deployment of clean technology, renewables, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen, reducing the fossil energy imports by 90 %. However, it is estimated, clean energy deployment will be more capital-intensive, needing a net additional investment of $1.5 trillion.

In addition, managing the clean energy transition would require significant policy support including:
1. Deployment of mandates for cost-effective clean technologies;
2. Financial support for emerging technologies;
3. Long-term infrastructure planning;
4. Accelerating domestic manufacturing, and;
5. Planning for a just transition.

Epilogue

Use of fossil fuel in the energy sector is the primary contributor to outdoor air pollution in India. Faced with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, India, as the 3rd largest emitter of CO2 after China and the United States, has made a commitment to achieve Net-Zero GHG emissions by 2070 at the Glasgow United Nations Climate Change Conference, more commonly referred to as COP 26 in 2021.

Net-Zero Target is referred to as Carbon neutrality. It is a state in which a country’s emissions are compensated by the absorption and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Absorption of Greenhouse gases can be increased by creating more carbon sinks such as forests, a carbon sink being a type of carbon pool that has the capability to take up more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases. The removal of gases from the atmosphere however requires futuristic technologies, such as carbon capture and storage.

India is an emerging economy where Greenhouse Gas emissions are bound to increase in pursuit of its development and poverty eradication goals. At present, globally China is the biggest GHG emitter followed by the US & India, although India’s per capita emissions are much lower than in most other countries. However, the country’s carbon footprint is growing, which is projected to peak in 2040-45.

India’s carbon emissions come from sectors like the Energy sector, which relies mainly on burning coal to generate electricity for Industrial activity, ranging from manufacturing to construction and Transportation, both private and logistics.

India is the 3rd largest energy consuming country in the world. Globally, India stands 4th in Renewable Energy Installed Capacity including Large Hydro projects, 4th Wind Power capacity & 4th Solar Power capacity as per The REN21 Renewables 2022 Global Status Report, which documents the progress made in the renewable energy sector.

India has set an enhanced target at COP 26 of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based energy by 2030, the world’s largest expansion plan in renewable energy. It has also set a target to reduce the carbon intensity of the nation’s economy by 45% by the end of the decade, achieve 50 % cumulative electric power installed by 2030 from renewables, and achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070.

India, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, has presented an example which needs to be emulated by other countries to save the global collapse of human civilisation from climate change.