Why Congress won Karnataka with JD (S) votes, not BJP's

It’s only been a few days since the Karnataka assembly election results. However, there are already plenty of articles, opinion pieces and TV discussions about why the Bharatiya Jananta Party (BJP) lost in Karnataka and Congress had an emphatic victory. Congress numbers look good, with 135 out of 224 seats. BJP only managed 66. Congress had its best Karnataka tally in decades. A win is a win, and for Congress it is a big cause to celebrate. Experts are citing a multitude of reasons for the Congress victory. They are: Corrupt image of the previous BJP governmentStrong, cohesive local leadership of Congress vs a fractured local BJPBJP running this local election like a national election, using the PM as the main selling pointBJP’s focus on communal issues, which doesn’t work well in KarnatakaCertain caste equations that went against BJP. Some say this shows winds of change – the rise of Congress and challenges for BJP in 2024. Relax!At first glance all the reasons for the BJP loss seem plausible. However, drill deeper into the actual voting numbers and you find some of the factors cited above are overblown. The first aspect to understand about the Karnataka contest is that it is triangular. There are three parties – BJP, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) or JD (S) – competing against each other in various combinations. In a triangular contest, even slight differences in vote shares can lead to huge variability in results. ShowBlurbsLet’s look at the 2018 to 2023 vote share movement (rounded to nearest percentage). For BJP 36% to 36%, Congress 38% to 43%, JD (S) 18% to 13%. Meanwhile, the seat differences were massive. BJP went from 104 to 66 (down 38), Congress from 78 to 135 (up 57), JD (S) from 37 to 19 (down 18). The media and discussions disproportionately focus on the final seat tally, perhaps justifiably so. Seats are what matter. That’s how winners are decided and governments are made. However, if the aim is to understand what happened, one must dig deeper into vote shares. Let’s look at BJP’s vote share, which was 36%, the same as 2018. Does it look like a hugely unpopular, corrupt image, anti-incumbency situation? Does it look like an automatic rejection of the party’s ideology in Karnataka? With the same exact vote share last time, BJP managed over 100 seats. It was hailed as a winner. With the same exact vote share, the seat numbers went lower this time, and the ‘BJP rejection in Karnataka’ theories began to sprout.So what really happened? Why did BJP lose so many seats if the vote share is still intact? The answer lies in the single biggest factor that influenced the current election – the continued decline of JD (S). JD (S) vote shares went from 18% to 13%, a drop of five points. And five points are exactly the rise in Congress vote share, which went from 38% to 43%. ShowBlurbsWhy did the JD (S) share decline? That’s a valid question that needs its own larger analysis. However, this has little to do with national-style elections, poor local coordination or whatever list items are being created today in the name of election analysis. Essentially, JD (S) decline has been a trend. People do not see the party as a statewide regional party alternative. It is also seen as opportunistic – has made governments with both Congress and BJP, leaders have become CM despite not having a single largest party status. There’s too much influence of one family. Only one caste tends to support it the most, the Vokkaligas. Some of this vote has shifted in favour of Congress, partly due to the issues with JD (S). Another possible shift from JD (S) to Congress is the Muslim vote, which consolidated this time to keep BJP out. In that sense, yes, BJP’s focus on issues like Bajrang Dal may have led to consolidation of Muslim votes for Congress, while not increasing BJP’s own vote share. This Vokkaliga and Muslim vote shift to Congress, which was a few percentage points of vote share, is all it took to upset the apple cart in a triangular contest. Does this mean these results aren’t about BJP and Congress and their respective local/national leaders at all? No, everything plays a part. Keeping a vote share intact is also not easy. However, one can argue that BJP despite being in government could not notch it up a few points more to ensure a comfortable non-coalition victory this time. Congress, on its part, presented itself as a real alternative that could win an absolute majority, which may have made the JD (S) vote shift possible.Does the Karnataka verdict give a shot in the arm to Congress? For sure. But does it tell what will happen in the next few state elections, and the big national election of 2024? Absolutely not.