The fall of Bashar al-Assad, after a tumultuous and brutal reign that spanned over two decades, marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. This event has notably positioned Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a potentially pivotal moment not just in Syrian affairs but in broader regional and religious dynamics.
Erdogan's vision and Syrian policyErdogan has long harbored ambitions of reviving Turkey's influence in the Muslim world, harkening back to the Ottoman era when Turkey was at the epicenter of Islamic governance. His approach to Syrian politics has been multifaceted, shifting from initial support for Assad to becoming one of his fiercest critics after the Syrian civil war erupted. Turkey has supported various opposition groups, including Islamist factions like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA), which were instrumental in Assad's ouster. This support was not just military but also ideological, aligning with Erdogan's narrative of promoting a form of political Islam that he envisions for the region.
The fall of Assad is seen by some as Erdogan's opportunity to reshape Syria in a way that benefits Turkey's strategic interests. This includes curbing Kurdish influence in northeastern Syria, which Turkey views as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish group it fights domestically.
Strategic calculations for TurkeyTurkey’s approach to Syria remains intricately complex as the region faces growing uncertainty. Hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees — the largest such population globally — Turkey has faced growing anti-refugee sentiment and economic pressures.
By influencing the new Syrian political order, Erdogan could potentially secure Turkey's borders, manage the refugee crisis, and extend Turkey's political and possibly economic influence into Syria.
Erdogan, stressing Turkey’s defensive posture, said on Monday, “Turkey has no eye on the territory of any other country. The only aim for our cross-border operations is to save our homeland from terrorist attacks.” Erdogan reiterated on Tuesday that Turkey will not permit the division of Syria, saying, “From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again. Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it.” This strong stance underscores Turkey’s longstanding goal of preventing Kurdish separatists from expanding their influence in northeastern Syria, a region they have dominated since 2012.