Bihar 2025: Old Game, New Rules

medium118562349State elections to Bihar’s 243-seat assembly are many months away. But for all purposes, campaigning is well underway. Modi’s Bhagalpur visit and largesse announced is as strong a sign as any that after Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, Bihar is on NDA and INDIA’s radar.Congress and its allies will have difficult conversations on seat-sharing — NDA’s recent welfare commitments in successful election campaigns might reshape Bihar’s political landscape in surprising ways. At the same time, both alliances face internal and external challenges that may blur in months ahead. Five takes.Bihar stayed behind | Two Union budgets, seven months apart, singled out Bihar for a flurry of infra investments, encompassing highways, airports, flood control, and tourism development. Implicitly, these announcements acknowledge that two decades of Nitish Kumar have failed to address the state’s developmental challenges adequately.Equally, Centre’s refusal to grant Bihar the long-pending special category status — raising Centre’s contribution to state projects from 60% to 90% — underscores New Delhi’s calculative generosity. BJP’s steady ascent in Bihar has come largely at JDU’s expense. At its peak in 2010, JDU won 115 seats, just seven short of majority, while BJP secured 91, its highest tally so far.By 2015, BJP polled the most votes, nearly a quarter of total votes, gaining nearly 8% at the expense of other parties. Yet, despite this electoral surge, JDU and RJD secured more seats and formed the short-lived Mahagathbandhan sarkar, after which BJP and JDU reunited. By 2020, the tables had turned: BJP emerged as the senior coalition partner, winning 74 out of the 110 seats it contested, while JDU slumped to 43 out of 115.BJP surged ahead | It is no secret that BJP’s rise has fuelled Nitish’s political oscillations over the past decade. Determined not to play second fiddle — whether under BJP or RJD — Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister has clung to his gaddi.In Bihar’s fiercely competitive elections, where no party secures even a quarter of the vote, Nitish’s survival depends on constant recalibration. When BJP surges ahead, he turns to RJD to stay relevant. When RJD threatens to overshadow him, he pivots back to NDA.These shifting coalitions, framed in the language of ‘socialism’ (samajwaad) and development (vikas), also reflect a deeply fragmented and discontented electorate. Genuine welfare gains remain elusive in a state that consistently ranks at the bottom in terms of per capita incomes. Voters, amused yet unimpressed by the political theatrics of the state’s politicians, expect more from their elected representatives.Nitish went places | INDIA’s Bihar alliance, Mahagathbandhan, emphasises public goods, whereas infra creation has emerged as the cornerstone of NDA welfarism. Bihar needs both, but actual development outcomes hinge on whether divisions within intermediate or ‘backward’ castes ultimately end up reinforcing the dominance of those at the top, or advancing the interests of those at the bottom in an intensely hierarchical society.Two Union budgets have unabashedly sought to give BJP a strategic advantage in Bihar. In an ideal scenario, it would win a majority outright, delivering the state its first BJP CM. Even in a less decisive outcome, BJP could still emerge as the single-largest party, with JDU in terminal decline.The spectre of Maharashtra, where state parties fractured under sustained political pressure and where BJP surged to a majority, must also weigh on Nitish Kumar’s mind.Who gets what | Seat-sharing negotiations are set to be far tougher than in 2020. Notwithstanding JDU’s resilience in last summer’s national elections, the 2020 formula of a 115:110 split between JDU and BJP is unlikely to hold.Out of 243 assembly seats, BJP may push for 140 or more, seeking to maximise its chances of forming govt on its own or with smaller parties. Frankly, neither in Delhi — recall the fuss over Purvanchali voters — nor in Patna does BJP need Nitish Kumar to form a govt.A dispensable Nitish Kumar must now weigh his options carefully. The demise of his longstanding deputy Sushil Modi has estranged him further from the Modi-led BJP. His persistent demand for special category status has been brushed aside — much like in Andhra, where New Delhi has sidestepped long-term fiscal commitments in favour of piecemeal, ad hoc measures to address regional disparities.Fiscal fuss status quo | Even the elaborate 33-page memo submitted by Bihar’s deputy CM and state finance minister to Nirmala Sitharaman went largely unaddressed in an otherwise Bihar-centric budget. Pointed demands for 32 agricultural produce market yards, agricultural and horticultural institutes, textile parks, logistics hubs, and dams were met with stony silence. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that speculation is mounting: does Nitish have yet another somersault up his sleeve?Much more than just the Purvanchalis of Delhi connect the national capital to Bihar. Welfarism is likely to remain the buzzword for both NDA and INDIA for the foreseeable future. As in Odisha last year, a new model of development-centred governance is more likely to turn heads than election sops. Cross-caste alliances and women voters may still hold the key to electoral success.What JDU and RJD have to offer is familiar ground for the electorate. Voters will keep a close eye on govt performances in Maharashtra and Delhi to determine what BJP can offer, and whether it is more likely to keep its promises than its rivals — within and outside alliances.The writer teaches at Georgetown University, Qatar