Can India’s precision airstrikes trigger nuclear escalation?

medium120989935India’s measured and proportionate response without crossing the airspace, coupled with the absence of direct military-to-military combat, should mitigate the risk of nuclear escalation — provided Pakistan exercises restraint. Despite this, Islamabad has labelled the Indian strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Punjab as a violation of its sovereignty.However, Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons, including the Hatf series (Hatf-III and Hatf-IX or Nasr), are designed for battlefield use against an invading force, not for retaliation against limited strikes targeting terror infrastructure.The current tensions trace back to the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which claimed 26 lives, including 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali national. The attack, attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), was allegedly masterminded by Hashim Musa, a former Pakistani Army Special Forces operative. The brutality of the attack, where victims were executed at close range, triggered nationwide outrage in India.In retaliation, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7. Within a precise 25-minute window, Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jets and precision-strike drones targeted nine high-value terror camps across Pakistan and PoK. The strikes were meticulously planned to avoid civilian casualties and did not cross the Line of Control (LoC) or violate Pakistani airspace. At a detailed briefing in New Delhi, foreign secretary Vikram Misri, Colonel Sofiya Qureshi, and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh emphasised the operation’s calibrated nature.The international community, led by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), expressed concern over the escalating tensions, urging restraint from both sides. Yet, Pakistan responded with strong rhetoric, accusing India of breaching its sovereignty. Tensions escalated further when India announced its decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. Pakistan threatened a full-scale response, warning of “full force across the complete spectrum of national power”, a statement interpreted by experts as a veiled nuclear threat. medium120989956 medium120989966India’s Cold Start Doctrine, a strategy for rapid, limited conventional strikes, is critical to understanding these developments. While India adheres to a “no first use” nuclear policy, Pakistan has not. In the past, Islamabad has indicated that economic strangulation — such as disrupting the Indus waters — could be a trigger for nuclear use.Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) cautioned that the situation remains volatile. “With more than 160 nuclear weapons on each side, including shorter-range systems, the potential consequences are immense. So, one would hope that causes the two sides to constrain their actions,” he said.Kristensen further warned that while hostilities are relatively low at present, continued retaliation could heighten the risk of nuclear escalation.The FAS estimates that Pakistan maintains approximately 170 nuclear warheads, while India possesses around 180. Concerns persist over the security of Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons, which are scattered across multiple locations, making them more vulnerable to theft or unauthorised use.Within India, the government received widespread support for its decisive counter-terror action. Even the opposition Congress party lauded the courage of the armed forces. However, as the situation remains tense, both nations are on high alert, with the global community closely monitoring the crisis and calling for diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation.Lead illustration: Anirban BoraTOI+ complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here