Coup rumours in Bangladesh: What history tells us and what it means for India

Bangladesh has been witnessing lawless chaos fuelled by mob justice, vandalisation of properties and crimes against women and minorities since the August 5, 2024 fall of the Sheikh Hasina government.India is extremely concerned about the prevailing situation in the country and New Delhi has repeatedly asked the interim regime led by economist Muhammad Yunus to bring the accused behind violence against minorities to justice.During a briefing to a parliamentary standing committee, the external affairs ministry reportedly mentioned recent public remarks by the Bangladesh Army chief, in which he underlined the threat to the country from infighting and factionalism.Why this specific reference to the army chief’s comment?Of late, there have been rumours regarding the likely imposition of martial law or a state of emergency in Bangladesh. Speculation is rife that the army might take action against the interim government, as tensions escalate between the armed forces, the administration, and student-led protest movements.On March 25, the army dismissed a media report claiming that top generals held an “emergency meeting”, saying it was based on “false and fabricated” information.While India has not officially commented on these “rumours” yet, New Delhi is keeping a close tab on events unfolding in Bangladesh, a country very much familiar with military coups. medium119594474Why Yunus shouldn’t take this warning lightlyGen Zaman recently warned that the military could step in if the interim government fails to control law and order and protect the country’s sovereignty.Speaking at a memorial event in Dhaka on February 25, he blamed infighting among stakeholders for the worsening situation since August 2024.He noted that miscreants were exploiting the current instability, making governance more challenging. In a striking remark, he suggested that his work was far from over, hinting at the possible intervention if the situation doesn’t improve.A career infantry officer, Gen Zaman said he had no personal “ambition”, in an apparent reference to the country’s history of military takeovers.He said the military would return to the barracks once the country reached a stable point.Bangladesh witnessed a resurgence of unrest since February 5 when protestors burned and demolished the residence of the country’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, coinciding with his daughter Hasina’s previously announced virtual address to students from India.The protesters set on fire or ransacked the houses and business establishments of Awami League leaders and supporters across the country. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/G0QMI0Jt1GE?si=OYkW9l-SSJA0oTRcWhat the army chief is telling his officersAddressing senior army officials in Dhaka Cantonment on March 24, Gen Zaman lauded the military’s dedication, professionalism, and resilience, emphasising that misinformation should not be allowed to cause distractions.His remarks came after a night of intense speculation regarding the imposition of martial law or emergency rule as the nation grapples with unfolding political developments.Gen Zaman once again underscored key concerns, including the deteriorating law and order situation, the dangers of misinformation, and inflammatory rhetoric.Stressing that “the country and its people remain the army’s highest priority”, he called on troops to remain vigilant and not succumb to provocations.Soon after Hasina’s ouster, the interim administration had entrusted the army with the task of policing with judicial magisterial authority as the upsurge largely shook the regular police structure and its effectiveness.The army largely stood on the sidelines despite being called out to tame the uprising by the deposed government, while a United Nations’ fact-finding report suggested police actions during the uprising and subsequent violence claimed nearly 1,400 lives. medium119594204What it means for IndiaDespite diplomatic tensions, India-Bangladesh military ties have remained robust. The recent ‘Bongosagar’ naval exercise showcased joint efforts to tackle maritime challenges and improve operational coordination.The latest edition of the annual exercise, which began in 2019, involved a range of complex operations encompassing surface firing, tactical manoeuvres, underway replenishment, communication drills, and VBSS (visit, board, search and seizure) operations.Additionally, the two neighbours have been holding a joint military exercise, ‘Sampriti’, since 2009.Around 50-60 Bangladesh Army officers also attend specialised courses in Indian military establishments every year.However, Indian Army chief General Upendra Dwivedi recently expressed “concern” over reports that a delegation of Pakistan Army and the spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, had visited areas in Bangladesh close to the strategic Siliguri corridor, which connects India’s Northeast with the rest of the country.“I had used the word epicentre of terrorism for a particular country [Pakistan]. Now those countrymen, if they go to any other place and they happen to be our neighbour, as far as I am concerned, I should be concerned about it. That they should not be able to use that soil to send terrorists to India,” he said.With inputs from agencies