NASA UPDATE: Is Asteroid 2024 YR4 a threat to Mumbai and Kolkata? Here’s what we know

In December 2023, a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, began attracting attention from scientists due to its potential to impact Earth in the coming decade. While the chance of a collision remains relatively low, experts are closely monitoring its trajectory due to the possibility of a catastrophic event. This asteroid, though small in size compared to others, could still cause widespread destruction, especially in highly populated regions like Mumbai and Kolkata.
The basics of Asteroid 2024 YR4
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Measuring between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, it's not the largest asteroid on NASA's radar, but its speed makes it particularly dangerous. The asteroid is racing toward Earth at an incredible speed of 40,000 miles per hour. If it were to collide with the planet, the impact could release an energy equivalent to eight megatons of TNT– roughly 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Currently, NASA estimates there is a 3.1% chance of the asteroid hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) places the odds slightly lower, at 2.8%. While these percentages may sound small, the potential risk of a direct hit is enough to keep scientists on alert.

Could Mumbai and Kolkata be in danger?
One of the primary concerns with asteroid 2024 YR4 is its possible impact on densely populated regions, especially in South Asia. Cities like Mumbai and Kolkata are among those identified by NASA as being within the potential risk zone. The consequences of an asteroid impact in such areas could be devastating, given their high population density and importance as major economic and cultural hubs. If the asteroid were to strike in or near these cities, it could result in widespread devastation– potentially wiping out entire neighbourhoods, causing massive casualties, and disrupting local and global economies. The risk to millions of lives is a critical consideration for space agencies monitoring the asteroid’s path.

The science behind the monitoring efforts
Although the asteroid's speed and size are concerning, scientists are still studying its exact path and structure. A notable question is whether the asteroid is solid or porous, as this would affect how much energy it could release if it hits Earth. Physicist Mark Boslough from Los Alamos National Laboratory says this uncertainty plays a big role in assessing the asteroid’s potential danger. The James Webb Space Telescope will begin observing asteroid 2024 YR4 in March 2025, helping scientists learn more about its makeup and path. This information will allow them to better assess the risk and decide if any protective actions are needed.
What are the chances of impact?The likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth is still considered relatively low. Even though NASA and ESA are monitoring the asteroid’s movement closely, it is important to remember that the probability of a collision remains under 5%. However, scientists caution that these odds could change as more data is collected. While an impact from this asteroid is not imminent, the potential consequences of such an event make it a focus of concern. As Richard Moissl, the head of ESA’s planetary defense bureau, explains, while this asteroid is not “the planet killer” some might fear, its impact could still be catastrophic for a single city.
Are we prepared for an asteroid strike?