Arrogance, OBC mistrust: 11 factors that led to Cong’s Haryana debacle

MEMORIES OF HOODA RAJThe decadelong (2004-2014) rule of state Congress boss was not known for probity, a level playing field for all castes, regional balance or justice or fair treatment of Dalits. Voters, it appeared, hadn’t forgotten what poll pundits had — those allegedly shady land deals, legions of ‘cash-for-jobs’ stories, apparent favouritism towards Jats from Hooda’s Rohtak-Jhajjar stronghold, highhanded treatment of lower castes in incidents like those in Mirchpur. That the Congress high command virtually handed over the state party to him this time as well helped reinforce those memories – and led even a section of voters who had supported Congress in the Lok Sabha polls to vote against it this time.POST-LS SWAGGER-ICongress’s five Lok Sabha seats, which came on the back of a 15 percentage point rise in vote share, made it think the assembly election was its for the taking. Hubris often breeds complacency, and it was complacency that made the Congress high command agree to a Hooda father-son play as its main strategy. Aside from upsetting non-Jats, the virtual handing over of the campaign to Hoodas sharpened party infighting.POST-LS SWAGGER-IISupremely confident of his comeback and eager to ensure that there were enough of his loyalists among MLAs to guard against any trouble, Hooda got most sitting MLAs re-nominated, many of whom were unpopular at local levels. This was akin to a gift to BJP, which fielded many new faces. medium nocaption114070392THE SELJA FACTORThe marginalisation of Kumari Selja, at Hooda’s insistence, unravelled the Jat-Jatav compact that had worked well for Congress in Lok Sabha elections. Despite the preponderance of Jatavs in the list for reserved candidates, doubts about Selja’s status remained, especially as she publicly vented her grievances. The Gandhis, both in public and private, tried to bring her on board. But it never quite worked. Naturally, Modi and every BJP member highlighted this dissonance.JAWAN/KISAN/ PEHALWAN WHO?This rhetorical threesome proved effective for Congress in LS elections. But it failed in assembly polls. BJP’s promises to retiring Agniveers blunted the jawan plank. Many Haryana farmers have more diversified income sources than their cereal-dependant Punjab cousins — that weakened the pitch for farmers. Yes, Vinesh Phogat, the poster girl of the pehalwan agitation, won. But her narrow majority shows that while many Jats voted for Congress, a not insubstantial number went for BJP. medium nocaption114071270KHARCHI-PARCHIFew outside Haryana could have made sense of the twin terms when Modi used them at one of his election meetings. But for large sections in Haryana it was a reminder of the cash-for-jobs scheme the state had become notorious for in the 10 years of Hooda CM-ship and the five years before that when Om Prakash Chautala was the CM. Government recruitments under BJP were seen as an improvement. It was certainly not a system where governing party MLAs were given ‘targets’ of finding paying candidates for government jobs. Congress’ campaign on unemployment had to contend with this problem.BJP’S 2014 PLAYBOOK, BACK IN 2024The party stuck to Amit Shah’s 2014 strategy of relying on 36 biradaris or castes to counter Congress’ strategy of relying on influential Jats, the largest community. Fears of Hooda hegemony helped this BJP strategy. Many non-Jat castes set aside disaffection over economic issues and focussed on countering a Jat wave. But a plain vanilla replay of this plan would have partially backfired for BJP, which does have some support among Jats who like Modi’s brand of muscular Hindu nationalism. So, the party spread the message on Jat hegemony quietly, never making it a part of its campaign speeches. Clearly, the message was heard by non-Jats.MODI MATTERSLS elections may have dimmed his political aura somewhat but in a state where cow ‘protection’ forces are a visible presence and ‘strong’ members play well, the PM, even with minimal campaigning, remains a brand to be reckoned with. At the margin, BJP benefitted from being Modi’s party. medium nocaption114070438SMART AND SAINI DECISIONWhen BJP replaced ML Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as CM, pundits’ verdict was mixed. But results showed it was the smartest call BJP made in Haryana. The very fact Saini was neither as high profile nor as headline-hogging as Khattar helped the party. Saini’s amiability was seen by many Haryana voters as a decided improvement on Khattar’s periodic acerbic remarks. That same quality, as also the fact that Saini comes from the ‘36-biradari group’, helped the CM when he campaigned among a variety of nonJat castes. There was a danger that Khattar’s sacking would anger his fellow Punjabis. But his prime Union cabinet portfolios of power and urban development nixed any idea that he was being sidelined completely.SLICE AND DICE DALIT QUOTABJP in Haryana openly supported the demand that the SC verdict okaying sub-categorisation of Dailts’ quota be made policy. The issue has strong resonance among large sections of Dalits, who have long held a grudge that Jatavs have been the largest beneficiary of quotas. Congress was hamstrung on this. It couldn’t have supported such a policy for fear of annoying Jatavs, who got the largest share of Congress tickets for reserved seats.BETTER RESPONSEBJP was perhaps a bit tone-deaf on the Agnipath scheme during LS polls. In assembly polls, the party course-corrected, promised jobs for recruits who would have to leave after a short service. It also made comforting noises on assured price support, closely mirroring MSP — the target being farmers. Not just in policy terms, BJP responded better to political challenges as well. Dropping sitting MLAs and heavyweights, including former state chief Ramvilas Sharma, worked out, as did prompt firefighting when dissidence surfaced.Illustration: Uday Deb