Explained: BJP’s miracle, Congress' debacle

Exit polls have proven wrong, and BJP is set to form a govt for the third time in a row in Haryana. Pollsters had predicted anti-incumbency as the deciding factor and journalists reported visible anger against the governing party. Congress seemed to be on the right track with its kisan, pehelwan, jawan slogan, addressing the most aggrieved groups in the aftermath of the farmer agitation, wrestlers’ protests, and the Agniveer debacle. But BJP has won its largest ever majority in Haryana. That this comes so close on the heels of Congress’s good showing in LS elections four months ago makes the Haryana outcome even more shocking for the opposition. While Congress’s and BJP’s vote shares are roughly equal in the assembly results, BJP has managed to convert those votes into more seats. What has propelled BJP’s win and Congress’s loss? While more detailed analyses will emerge in the days to come, there are some obvious factors. No more Modi wave? | Modi was almost absent from the campaign in Haryana this time, addressing only four rallies as opposed to 10 in 2019. BJP might have learnt a lesson from LS polls and the focus on local leadership for the assembly election might have helped connect more with voters. Nayab Singh Saini’s approach of fighting the election on micro issues paid off. Keeping Modi out also might have worked as a strategy, as discontented farmers and youth associated the problematic farm laws and unemployment with the PM. The party also fielded many fresh faces to counter anti-incumbency. RSS & Hindutva | Support for Hindutva politics remains strong in Haryana and might have played a role in BJP being able to hold on to a large chunk of its voters. Moreover, RSS’s involvement may have made a significant difference for BJP this time. Unlike in LS polls, RSS buried the hatchet with BJP in Haryana and sent out its volunteers on the ground. The organisational strength of RSS ensured more door-to-door campaigning and kept the Hindutva element alive. A pamphlet distributed by RSS directly appealed to voters to not vote for parties that carry out ‘the politics of appeasement, pseudo-secularism, anti-religion, anti-nationalism, and opportunism’. Caste calculations gone wrong | While it was BJP that was pitching the election as a Jat vs non-Jat fight, Congress’s excessive focus on the Jat vote might have alienated other caste groups, which still saw the incumbent BJP as a viable option. Jat votes seem to have shifted to Congress at the expense of INLD and JJP, but this strategy was not able to significantly bring other communities into its fold. BJP, on the other hand, gained from its consolidation of non-Jat votes. It got more OBC votes after Nayab Singh Saini took over, changing the party’s image from a party of Punjabi Khatris, as it was perceived under previous CM Manohar Lal Khattar. BJP may have also gained Dalit votes from Congress after the party’s sidelining of Dalit leader Kumari Selja. Amit Shah capitalised on this and declared Congress as ‘anti-Dalit’ at his rally in Tohana. Infighting and overconfidence | Both BJP and Congress went into the election as divided houses but it has upset the fortunes of Congress more. The lack of a united front in Congress was very visible and might have impacted voter confidence in the party. Disgruntled leaders from both parties fought as Independents, and we need to see the extent of the dent made by ex-Congress independent candidates to the party’s vote share. Further, the unwillingness of BS Hooda to ally with AAP, in disagreement with the Congress central command, sent out a message that Congress was too overconfident. Missing welfare | Analysts have pointed out that the Congress campaign in assembly polls was much less centred on welfare programmes as opposed to LS elections. In its overconfidence, Congress failed to communicate the welfare schemes promised in its well-written manifesto. Congress saw this election as bigger than local issues, and in doing so might have failed to speak about people’s issues at the micro-level. BJP’s Saini, in his short term, had made some changes such as cutting down people’s electricity bills by scrapping minimum charges, and that made voters confident of BJP’s welfare role. The people of Haryana wanted a change. But it seems that Congress did not do enough to represent that change. Forming a govt in Haryana will certainly give BJP more confidence as it prepares for the Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi polls. Despite this historic win, it will still tread carefully. The fact that the contest in Haryana was so close is sure to keep BJP on its toes. Congress, meanwhile, needs to introspect.The writer is professor, Birmingham University