Five pointers to 2024 from 2023’s four polls

North India is Modi-fied in a BJP sweep . The Modi factor is key to the party consolidating its hold here after tightly contested assembly polls. The PM campaigned relentlessly and showed that he is still able to lift BJP’s prospects in north India. Well-entrenched Congress governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have been swept away in a return of anti-incumbency. However, BJP’s “double engine” runs faster in the north than in the south. It has come up short beyond the Vindhyas in Telangana.1. North-south split widensThe economic powerhouse states of the south are demanding accountable, high-performing leaders. Voters here are not as swayed by pan-Indian appeals to Hindutva and instead demand respect for strong regional identities, regional languages, and cultures. Congress winning Telangana within months of its triumph in Karnataka has it declaiming, BJP mukt South India. But its own claim to be a national party is now tempered by the fact that north of the Vindhyas it is in power in only a single state: Himachal Pradesh. North India is Congress mukt. The rout here indicates that Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and caste census pitch haven’t worked. Driven out of the politically crucial Hindi heartland, Congress has lost its claim to be Challenger No. 1 in the 2024 general election and questions will now be raised on its ability to be a fulcrum for the INDIA alliance and on Rahul Gandhi’s ‘mascot’ role.2. Mahila matters For years, the election lexicon revolved around the mood of the “common man”. But in every round of elections today it is the “common woman” who matters equally, if not more. In MP, BJP has clearly been powered to yet another government by the women’s vote, which shows a 10 percentage point gap between BJP and Congress. Shivraj Singh Chouhan has over the years created 21 woman-centric programmes. And the recent Ladli Behna Yojana, in which 1.31 crore women have received ₹1,250 directly into their bank accounts for the last 5 months, arguably turned the MP contest in favour of BJP. In Chhattisgarh, BJP offered ₹12,000 per year to married women under the Mahatari Vandana Yojana; 43% women voted for BJP while 41% voted for Congress. 3. Never take voters for granted Even though Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh looked well entrenched, BJP’s high-tech election machinery kept on churning smartly at the ground level. Congress instead relies on old style campaigning by veterans seated in drawing rooms and dispensing patronage via local darbars. Telangana too has shown that voters should never be taken for granted. Voters have risen in revolt against an entrenched supremo like K Chandrashekhar Rao because of his increasing inaccessibility as well as the massive corruption charges against local BRS MLAs. When a leader who begins as the voice of the people and symbol of popular sentiment begins to get cut off from the same people, empowered voters will turn him out of office.4. Congress needs a generational change in leadership across north India Contrast the success of Anumula Revanth Reddy, the Telangana Congress chief known for his fiery and macho leadership style, with how in MP veterans Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh pushed Jyotiraditya Scindia into BJP or how Sachin Pilot was cut to size in Rajasthan. More than theoretical talk of a caste census, what the party needs is younger leaders, particularly OBC faces.5. BJP is the favourite to win in 2024True, these elections cannot be seen as a referendum on national politics as local issues invariably dominate a state poll. But when direct fights between BJP and Congress in three north Indian states have BJP triumphing all the way, its dominance in the Hindi heartland puts it in pole position to win the general elections of 2024.