No Good Options For Pak to Hit Back

medium120970961The significance of Operation Sindoor in terms of damage to terror infra in PoJK and Pakistan cannot be understated. The targeted terror bases — which were carefully selected based on high quality intelligence — have been thoroughly damaged, especially the headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) at Bahawalpur and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) at Muridke.This, however, is only the opening salvo. It now depends on Pakistan. If, as expected, it retaliates, then there could be an escalation from India. Islamabad’s dilemma is that there are no good options for it here.There are no terrorist targets in India, so what does it target? Civilians or military targets? In either case the retribution from India would be swift and overwhelming.While the damage to terror infra in PoJK and Pakistan has been quite severe, it is not the complete story. It’s key to note that Op Sindoor cannot be seen in isolation but must be seen as a continuation of measures taken by India, especially putting IWT in abeyance. This will certainly have long-term consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and food security.The strikes on Muridke and Bahawalpur terror camps serve as a huge blow to Pakistan’s military-ISI-terror nexus. While full details of the casualties and damage inflicted are awaited, the hits to the camps are clearly visible.* The strikes also have an important psychological impact. For decades, these two camps have been the epicentre of Pakistan’s terrorism directed against India. In the past, India had always hesitated against taking action against them. This time, however, the Indian armed forces have attacked them and degraded their ability to carry out their nefarious designs. This marks a huge strategic shift in India’s counterterror response.* Given the blows Pakistan has just suffered, the generals in Rawalpindi GHQ and the deep state will be under pressure to respond. They have to react, and react quickly, for the sake of their domestic audience. All eyes will be on Pak army chief Asim Munir.But as mentioned above, the options for Pakistan’s retaliation are limited. Civilian targets or military targets will invite definite retaliation from India. Cross-border terrorism, in J&K or in other parts of India, is an easy option. However, this runs the risk of confirming they are indeed the epicentre of terror.* So, for the moment, they may not choose the last option. But for the longer term, unless Pakistan physically dismantles its terror architecture, the possibility and temptation of using cross-border terror as an instrument of state policy will always be there. One could say that the Pakistani establishment is addicted to this strategy. For, they’ve not only used this strategy against India but also against Afghanistan.Plus, there’s also the concern that unless gainfully ‘employed’, trained jihadis could turn inwards and attack Pakistan like in the case of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has been giving the Pakistani security establishment quite a headache in recent months. Therefore, Pakistan is riding a tiger and just can’t get off.* The monster that Pakistan’s military-ISI complex has created since the 1980s when it hosted, trained and armed the Afghan mujahideen — subsequently using a similar template to foment terrorism in J&K — can today devour its master unless it is periodically exported out.This is precisely the reason why terrorism emanating from Pakistan has become a global problem. That bin Laden was found hiding in Pakistan’s garrison town of Abbottabad exemplifies how deep-rooted its terror ecosystem is.* This is also why few buy Pakistan’s denial of state involvement in the terror industry flourishing on Pakistani soil. The international community has understood Islamabad’s role in fomenting terrorism. Pak defence minister Khawaja Asif and Bilawal Bhutto’s recent comments about Pakistan nurturing and backing terrorists further confirmed this.The international community is fed up with Pak-sponsored terrorism. Hence, apart from China and Türkiye, no other country is willing to give it the time of day. Even traditional benefactors like Gulf Arab nations now increasingly opt for India’s prism to view regional security.Taken together, all of this gives GOI and Indian armed forces the strategic flexibility to carry out focused military ops like Sindoor.TOI+ complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here