Shiv Sena name, symbol gone, Uddhav Thackeray faces uphill task

The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to stay the Election Commission of India’s decision to recognise a faction led by Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde as the real Shiv Sena. Remember, it was Shinde and his group’s revolt that led to the MVA government falling in Maharashtra. While the apex court will continue to hear the case, for now the Shiv Sena doesn’t have a Thackeray and the Thackerays don’t have the Sena. What does it mean for the party? What does it mean for the Thackerays? To answer such questions, we have Vaibhav Purandare, deputy resident editor of The Times of India in Mumbai, and the author of a book on Bal Thackeray and the Shiv Sena. What it means for Sena, the ThackeraysThe Supreme Court's decision to grant the symbol and the name of the party to Eknath Shinde is a major setback to the Thackerays. For the first time in the Shiv Sena's more-than-five-decade-old history the name Shiv Sena has been effectively and officially de-linked from the Thackerays and this is a major challenge now for Uddhav Thackeray because the Thackerays were synonymous with the Sena and the Sena was synonymous with the Thackerays. But now there's a big question mark over that because if they don’t have that name what other name are they going to get? They can use the Shiv Sena in brackets Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray name temporarily until the two Assembly by-elections which are due in Maharashtra this Sunday. But after these by elections are over they would not be able to use that name and the symbol of the mashaal (torch) is the temporary symbol that has been granted to them. Why loss of the bow and arrow hurts Uddhav ThackerayThe core Shiv Sena voter almost automatically votes for the bow and arrow. Many voters might. So it is now for Uddhav Thackeray and his son, Aaditya, to convince the party followers that they still represent the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray. The whole contest is between the ideological legacy and legacy by birth. Eknath Shinde has claimed that he really is the inheritor in terms of the legacy of Bal Thackeray, though Uddhav may be the inheritor in terms of birth. Once Uddhav gets some new symbol it will be a big task to popularise the symbol in the Sena constituencies. It is a major challenge, but at the same time it’s a major opportunity. Is there a sympathy wave for Uddhav Thackeray?Uddhav Thackeray is already banking heavily on that factor; he has gone on record as saying that there is a ‘massive sympathy wave in our favour and let that sympathy wave not die down’. The sympathy wave exists among a section of the Shiv Sena's voters, but there is another section of the Sena vote base that is confused, in two minds. If Eknath Shinde can take over 50% of that Sena vote base then even if Uddhav gets the sympathy of the remaining 50% of the Sena’s constituency he will not be a major political force. He will be a considerably diminished political force. One of the major complaints about Uddhav -- and his son, too -- has been that they have been largely incommunicado. So the party functionaries at the shakha level, the grassroots level Sena worker, do not have a direct connection with Uddhav, the way they had with Balasaheb Thackeray. That distance between the leadership and the party cadre at the ground level has increased a great deal. What happens to the shakha network that is deeply connected to the Sena’s vote base? If people in the shakhas decide that they don't want to be with Uddhav anymore but would rather go with Shinde who has now got the official party name and the official party symbol, then the voter connect is going to be with ShindeWhy Uddhav Thackeray’s political messaging will be importantThe base of his sympathisers alone will not help Uddhav Thackeray. He will have to tell them what his political programme is, how he plans to rebuild his party, and how he proposes to carry forward the development of the state. The BMC elections are due in Mumbai this year and they are going to be make or break for Uddhav ThackerayThe veteran Sharad Pawar sort of spelt it out for Uddhav -- okay this matter is over, now get on with it; get a new symbol and fight. Audio production: Shantanu Nanoti