What will happen when Cyclone Biparjoy makes landfall in Gujarat?

The India Meteorological Department has issued an orange alert for Saurashtra and Kutch coasts in Gujarat as Cyclone Biparjoy, over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea, is rapidly intensifying into a severe cyclone storm. It is expected that on Thursday or Friday, there will be high-speed wind in Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagarh and Morbi. This apart, a yellow alert has been issued for Mumbai and Thane indicating that gusty winds are expected at isolated places. Also listen: Cylone alert: Six major storms that emerged from the Arabian Sea in the past 25 years Also listen: Cyclone Biparjoy: How tropical storms over Arabian Sea have increasedFishing activities have been suspended and authorities are evacuating people living by the sea. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a review meeting on Monday to assess the situation. What will happen when Cyclone Biparjoy hits the coast?Biparjoy is currently an extremely severe cyclonic storm. It is off the coast of Mumbai. If you draw a latitudinal line from Mumbai and a vertical line from Karachi, the point where the two lines would meet is where the cyclone is right now, says Amit Bhattarcharya, senior editor, The Times of India. If it moves north, it will hit Pakistan. But IMD and other weather agencies say it will take a sharp turn eastward and head to the Kutch region of Gujarat. It is expected to make landfall at Jakhau Port in Kutch on June 15 by around noon. The cyclonic storm will be severe. You can expect wind speed of 125 to 135 kmph gusting up to 150 kmph. The winds will initially be destructive. The region is expected to get a lot of rain, as happens in a cyclone.After the cyclone makes landfall, it will weaken quickly. A cyclone loses strength over land. Over a dry region like Kutch, it is expected to lose strength faster. But it will bring rain in Gujarat and move towards Rajasthan and bring rain there. On June 15 and 16, Gujarat must be very careful. People must be evacuated. The state can expect infrastructure losses such as roads, buildings and kuchcha structures. Why has Cyclone Biparjoy lasted so long?Cyclone Biparjoy is likely to remain at the cyclone level for close to 10 days. We haven't seen past records rigorously, but from the ones I have seen in the past 20 years, this could be among the longest lasting cyclones over the Arabian Sea, and even the Bay of Bengal. Cyclone Biparjoy has moved very slowly. A cyclone has two kinds of movements. One is at the centre of the cyclone. The movement of the winds is in anti-cyclonic directions. These are very strong and have rains as well. In the other movement, the entire cyclone system moves in a particular direction. That has been very slow with Biparjoy. It has had time to be over the Arabian Sea for a long time, so it has gathered strength, energy and moisture from the sea. Studies have shown that over the past two to three decades, cyclones over the Arabian Sea have been lasting longer. This is not good news for fishermen and people living on the coast because if a cyclone stays alive for a longer period, the number of fishing days get reduced.If a cyclone takes longer to make landfall, is its intensity stronger?If a cyclone stays over the sea for a longer period, chances are that it's going to gather energy and moisture from the sea and become stronger. Slowest moving cyclones are often extremely severe cyclonic storms like Biparjoy. Is the frequency of cyclones increasing in the region?Yes, and it is a worrying sign. Cyclone Tauktae hit Gujarat in May 2021. It was an extremely severe cyclone. It caused a lot of destruction in the state. Thankfully, the number of lives lost was minimal because people had been evacuated. IMD forecast of cyclones has been good over the past two decades, so we have been able to save lives. But in terms of destruction to infrastructure, Cyclone Taukte was bad. A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology says in the past two decades there has been a 52% rise in the number of cyclones over the Arabian Sea. Traditionally, the Arabian Sea was tranquil and water was cool. Storms need warm waters to develop. Over the past decades, temperature in some parts of the Arabian Sea has risen by up to 1.2 to 1.4 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial times. Can the changes be attributed to global warming?Certainly. Surface temperature at the sea needs to be around 28 degrees for cyclone storms to form. The Arabian Sea used to be less than 28 degrees in the past. Now that the temperatures have risen, it makes the situation more conducive for cyclones. This is not good news for people living on the western coast of India. What can we expect in the future?Projections are scary. The world needs to act and reduce greenhouse gases. The Indian Ocean is projected to warm by 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. In another 80 years we will see warming of 3 more degrees, on top of the one degree warming that we have already seen since 1880 since the pre-industrial period. With a warming of 1 degree Celsius, we are seeing an increased frequency of storms and extreme weather events. A 3-degree rise will be catastrophic. The world needs to wake up to the situation. Already, countries around the world are trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. That needs to speed up, otherwise people in the coastal regions of India, on both the coasts, are going to see severe weather. Audio Production: Prateek Kapoor