India suspends Indus treaty: When Modi said ‘blood & water can't flow together’

India has suspended the over six-decade-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan in retaliation for the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 civilians, mostly tourists. The move is seen as significant as the World Bank-backed treaty had survived three wars – 1965, 1971 and Kargil — and multiple terror attacks, largely on humanitarian grounds despite the pact being in focus as a key tool to punish Islamabad for its nefarious acts.India had stopped short of suspending the treaty in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 Uri terror attack, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi announcing that “blood and water cannot flow simultaneously”. Nineteen soldiers were killed when four Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists from Pakistan attacked an Army camp in Jammu and Kashmir’s Uri on September 18, 2016. To avenge the deaths of its soldiers, India had carried out a surgical strike in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir 10 days later, dismantling terror launch pads there. Even last year, India served a notice to Pakistan seeking review and modification of the 1960 water treaty, calling upon the latter to begin negotiations with it.Official sources then cited persistent cross-border terrorism as one of the reasons for seeking a review of the water treaty.The notice followed a spate of terror attacks in Jammu, after which PM Modi accused Pakistan of using terrorism and “proxy war” to remain relevant. medium nocaption113524807What it meansIndia’s decision to suspend IWT means water flow from the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab and their tributaries — will be stopped immediately from wherever it is regulated through dams or whatever little structures India has on these rivers. Although the flow from natural channels will continue, India's move will impact irrigation and drinking water supply to some extent in two of the four provinces of Pakistan during the peak of summer when it needs water the most.Subsequently, India will have to increase its water storage capacity and work on Kishanganga and Ratle hydro-electric projects. Only then will India have more control over water in the long run. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, Netherlands has already endorsed New Delhi’s stand of resolving the dispute on design and water usage of the projects through a World Bank-appointed neutral expert.What happened in 2023?The trigger for India first seeking a modification in 2023 was Pakistan’s “intransigence and unilateral actions” on the issue of J&K’s Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects. India was upset that despite the World Bank asking both to find a mutually agreeable way to look into Pakistan’s objections to the projects, the latter unilaterally sought a parallel process to address the issue.According to official sources, India’s 2024 notification highlighted “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances” needing a reassessment of obligations under various articles of the treaty. “Among India’s concerns are change in demographics, environmental issues and the need to accelerate development of clean energy to meet emission goals,” a source has said.The treaty provides a framework for irrigation and hydropower development, allocating western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. As the World Bank notes, the pact also allows each country certain uses of the rivers allocated to the other. The latest notice was served to Pakistan on August 30 in line with Article XII(3) of the treaty. Under the Article, according to Indian authorities, the provisions can be modified by an agreement duly ratified by the two governments.In October 2022, the World Bank appointed not just a neutral expert that India sought to examine Kishenganga and Ratle issues, but also, at Pakistan’s insistence, a Court of Arbitration chairman, despite acknowledging India’s concern that carrying out the two processes concurrently posed practical and legal challenges. India has, therefore, also called for reconsideration of the dispute resolution mechanism under the treaty, said a source. India has not joined the Court of Arbitration meetings as it believes it was constituted illegally. medium nocaption113524445India’s post-Uri attack standIn the wake of the 2016 Uri Army camp attack, India had decided to suspend the meeting of the Indus water commission and explore ways to use its share of water of rivers flowing into Pakistan, besides hinting that it could revive construction of the Tulbul project in Jammu & Kashmir.In fact, the Modi government also explored the possibility of walking out of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) if Pakistan did not rein in terrorists, to send a message that the water-sharing pact was not sacrosanct.A review meeting on IWT was attended by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, then Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, then Water Resources Secretary Shashi Shekhar among other senior officials. It was said the Indus commissioners would meet only in the absence of terrorism. These commissioners meet about twice a year and have met every year since the treaty was signed, even during the 1965, 1971 and Kargil wars. They are also the first step for dispute settlement between India and Pakistan, and it's only after they fail to resolve a problem that it is escalated to a neutral expert of the World Bank. India unilaterally suspended the Tulbul project (Islamabad calls it Wullar Barrage) in 1987 after Pakistan objected. The decision to review the suspension signalled the Modi government's intent to revive it irrespective of Pakistan's protests. medium113524416Strategic importance of IWTThe Indus treaty holds immense geopolitical and strategic importance for both India and Pakistan, as well as the broader region, including China. Throughout history, rivers have played a critical role in military and strategic planning, often serving as tools of warfare or as assets that can give one side a decisive advantage. Controlling a river system like the Indus provides access to water resources, facilitates irrigation and food production, and can even influence the movement of troops and supply chains. The Indus River system runs through three nations — India, Pakistan, and China — making it a vital strategic resource for all parties involved.Despite the often tense relationship between India and Pakistan, the IWT has been seen as a rare example of cooperation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Even in the face of numerous political and military conflicts, the treaty has endured for over six decades, providing a mechanism for the two countries to manage their shared water resources peacefully. The World Bank has praised the treaty as one of the most successful examples of transboundary water management in the world. However, India’s recent push to modify the treaty reflects a growing recognition of the need to address new challenges, such as climate change, water scarcity, and the changing geopolitical landscape.In recent years, India has taken steps to reassess the IWT in light of these modern challenges. For example, in 2021, a Parliamentary Standing Committee recommended that the treaty be updated to take into account the impact of climate change on water availability in the Indus River basin. The committee also emphasized the need to address issues that were not covered in the original agreement, such as the environmental and socio-economic impacts of water usage.With inputs from Vishwa Mohan