Why Pakistan’s response to Operation Sindoor could depend on China

medium nocaption120971188India’s success in carrying out nine strikes deep in Pakistan as part of ‘Operation Sindoor’ is “significant” in the country’s response to terrorism and backers of terrorism, a strategic affairs expert said. Pakistan has said it will strike back at Indian targets of its choosing and Commodore (retd) C Uday Bhaskar says the Pakistan Army’s decisions will be based on its need to protect its image at home. In response to the late night strikes by India that killed over 30, Pakistan responded with artillery fire along the border in Jammu and Kashmir killing at least 12 Indians. Despite multiple nations attempting to get both nations to bring down tensions, Commodore Bhaskar said that Pakistan’s decision will be decided by China, which is the only nation that can provide meaningful support to the country. Commodore Bhaskar, who is an eminent strategic analyst and director of independent think-tank Society for Policy Studies (SPS), spoke on The Times of India podcast about how he sees things playing out between India and Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. He explained the significance of Operation Sindoor in India’s attempts at targeting terror, how much it would deter Pakistan from backing terrorist groups in the future and what challenges India would face if this escalates into a war. Edited excerpts Q. How significant is ‘Operation Sindoor’ in the context of India's past retaliation for terror strikes?I would describe Operation Sindoor as a significant punctuation in India's response to state-sponsored terrorism. It’s a reflection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resolve in combating terrorism that is directed against India.Q. How would you compare the strike on Balakot in 2019 and this operation?If you look at the Balakot strike in 2019, it was a limited response confined to terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. If you look at the nature of the current strikes and the targets chosen in Operation Sindoor, there are some targets in Punjab. There are a few areas which have been unambiguously identified with camps and assets that support terror activities. I think the expansion of the geographical scope in the Indian response is significant. It’s a reflection, not only of the political resolve that India will take these steps, but also its professional military competence. The Indian military was in a position to identify and acquire the targets - which means that you have surveillance capabilities of a high order - and then the Indian defence forces could also deliver the ordinance in a precise manner. medium120969973 Q. Pakistan claims it shot down India’s jets involved in the operation, but India hasn't clarified this in an official statement or in the official briefing. Is the silence to be expected? And what does it say about the attack if India did lose multiple jets in the strike?This claim has been made by Pakistan but I have not seen anything credible to validate this claim. But as in any such kinetic situation, I think we can give the benefit of doubt to Pakistan and see what evidence they can bring to the table. Hypothetically, if this claim is indeed true, what does it mean? All it means is that any such operation is not cost-free. Any military operation is embarked upon knowing fully well that there could perhaps be a price to pay. It could be in terms of lives, it could be in terms of damage to, or loss of, platforms. If you recall what happened in Kargil in 1999, the Indian military responded but it also paid a price, with the lives of young officers and soldiers.Q. A lot is riding on how Pakistan chooses to respond. How do you see this playing out in the near term and in the slightly longer term?In the near term, I think we will have to take this as one day at a time. India has conveyed its message that it does not seek any escalation. The limited objective was to give a response to the perpetrators of the terror attack and those who are supporting and enabling such terror attacks. If there is any escalation, I think that decision would have to be taken by the Pakistani military, particularly the beleaguered Pakistan Army chief. There has been a lot of opinion within Pakistan and elsewhere that given the domestic turbulence in Pakistan, the Army is on the back foot and hence may use this as a trigger to rally the population against India. Over the last year, the Pakistani army has been seen in a less than positive manner within the country. They've been charged with corruption, intimidation, killing of citizens and a number of undesirable activities, particularly in Balochistan and elsewhere.The domestic image of the Pakistani army may also have been a contributing factor to what happened in Pahalgam. I think the final decision will depend on Army chief General Asim Munir and the corps commanders in Rawalpindi, who are the ultimate power brokers in Pakistan’s affairs. medium120969986Q. India has constantly stressed that the strikes were precise, non-military and did not target civilian sites. Could you talk about the importance of these statements and whether they will help in preventing a rise in tensions?I think India was trying to make it very clear that the objective was only to look at terror-related assets and cadres who were part of the terror networks. It was important to make it clear that India has no animus against the people of Pakistan, and that this is not an all-out conventional war, where civilian assets can also be targeted.I think India was trying to send the signal also to Pakistan that the objective is limited. Whether or not the outcome will be as non-escalatory as India wants it to be remains a question mark at this time because we are not quite sure how the Pakistani army and the deep state will react.The deep state has many elements apart from the Pakistani army, including those in the political establishment, the religious clergy and others who have a very, very deep anti-India orientation.For the long term, I think what Delhi is seeking is: how do you prevent Pakistan from supporting terror groups acting against India? This is a very complex question and unless Pakistan is able to look inwards and come to peace with itself, this malignancy will continue. Bringing it under some level of regulation may be an increasingly uphill task for Pakistan, but that’s a domestic issue for them to acknowledge and redress. medium120970008Q: Multiple nations have volunteered to help resolve tensions between the two nations. How do you see this playing out on the international stage?Many nations have volunteered primarily because of the nuclear dimension. It’s not as if other countries in the world are not engaged in violent conflicts for extended periods. But, in those cases, there are no nuclear weapons in play.India and Pakistan are a distinctive dyad, in terms of their regional geography, tragic history and the major powers also have a geopolitical stake in them. For instance, China and Pakistan. Currently, there is concern that any escalation could lead towards the nuclear threshold. Personally, I think that is a low probability because it is very unlikely that even a beleaguered Pakistan Army chief would escalate things in such a rapid and intense manner.Q. Destroying terrorist camps is a significant step. But what does it mean for Pakistan's backing of terrorist groups? How much of a deterrent is such a strike?What India has done in the case of Balakot, and now in response to Pahalgam, is a tactical response. India has responded and taken out camps. But if we were to look at the brains behind terrorism, it is coming from the deep state. In each terror attack targeting India, the planning and the ideology is obviously coming from another source. Is that source only the Pakistani army or is it a combination of players? That’s where I think India has to use its leverage and it has not yet been done in an appropriate and effective manner. To my mind these responses remain at the tactical level and the very fact that after Pulwama in 2019, we had Pahalgam, would suggest that the deterrence value of these strikes has not been as effective as India expects them to be. medium120956704Q. Many say previous governments were not aggressive like the present BJP government, under whom Operation Sindoor and the Balakot strike were carried out. How would you respond to this claim?This is really a political question because we know that ever since Narendra Modi came to office from 2014 onwards, there has been a standard projection that the BJP is more firm and more resolute about national security than the Congress. That's not a valid statement to my mind, because one has to look at countries in the long cycle of their own historical experience.If you look at India from August 1947 to May 2025, clearly the most triumphant moment for the Indian military was the birth of Bangladesh. That happened when Indira Gandhi was Prime Minister. I would say that, by and large, it was seen as India's triumph. I think it is slightly limiting to say that 1971 was a Congress victory or Balakot is a BJP victory or Kargil was a AB Vajpayee victory. I think in each case it was India as a nation that triumphed and it’s very important not to associate military victories with a single political party.The Indian military, which is the sword arm of the country, owes its loyalty to the Constitution and is mandated to safeguard the territorial integrity of India and the safety of its citizens. Trying to disaggregate this and link it to a single political party or even one person, I don't think that's healthy.Q. You spoke about the Pakistani compulsion to respond to this attack and Pakistan said it has given a free hand to its armed forces to respond. What is that escalation to look forward to from this point and how can that chain be broken if both nations are engaged in an escalating scenario?We have to see the evolving situation one day at a time. Pakistan is presently using its artillery to fire across the Line of Control and a certain number of Indian citizens have been killed in the Poonch sector. If Pakistan wishes to escalate, it's not as if they do not have platforms, just like India. But will it escalate and actually strike at Indian targets deep within the country or will Pakistan stay within the Line of Control? That is what we have to monitor. I am sure the Indian security forces are prepared for all exigencies, but if that were to happen, then we are going to see a degree of escalation because India would also respond. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP0adf772QoQ. If we do see this escalation and we are looking at a war, what are the biggest challenges for India? I think we'll have to see what kind of a pattern Pakistan will follow. Will they open another front and move away from the Line of Control? After all, we share a very long international border all the way from Gujarat right up to Siachen. There are various areas that Pakistan may decide they have a tactical advantage. Will Pakistan use that? Or will Pakistan make some other kind of choice? The most important to my mind is what kind of tangible material and military support will Pakistan receive from other countries? On its own, Pakistan has limited capabilities. For Pakistan to receive tangible military assistance, we are looking at China, which has already come out in their support. But to my mind, there’s a low probability of that happening. I don't think China wants to be in that situation. But these are hypothetical scenarios that could play out and India would have to be prepared for all of them.