Explained: Why Riyadh is the new mecca of global diplomacy

medium nocaption120583883In the 1930s, Geneva, as the headquarters of the League of Nations, was the hub of international diplomacy and at the forefront of conflict prevention. That continued for most of the 20th century.But roll over Geneva, Riyadh is here. Saudi Arabia’ positioning its glitzy capital to be the new hub of troubleshooting diplomacy.Over recent weeks, Riyadh has hosted separate high-level talks on both Ukraine and Gaza wars. Indications are that Riyadh isn’t stopping here and has plans to play an even bigger role in international negotiations. Here’s the lowdown on why Saudi Arabia is betting big on playing peacemaker.Talks Saudis have hosted this yearRiyadh has been really busy.➤In February it hosted the first extensive US-Russia talks since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.➤This was followed by the Jeddah talks on March 11 between US and Ukraine where Kyiv agreed to a 30-day ceasefire in the war.➤More negotiations followed in the coming weeks – separately between US and Russia, and US and Ukraine – that led to in-principle agreements to halt attacks on energy infra and in the Black Sea.➤A future Trump-Putin meet might happen in Riyadh.➤Riyadh was also quick to organise an Arab summit to offer an alternative plan for post-conflict Gaza’s reconstruction when Trump suggested emptying out the Palestinian enclave and turning it into “the Riviera of the Middle East”.What’s driving the parleysAt the heart of the Saudi effort is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030. It's a gargantuan plan to transform the Saudi social compact by preparing for a post-oil future. And that means reworking the Saudi welfare system, putting more Saudi citizens to work, and creating a new, modern society by reinterpreting the role of religion in Saudi lives.➤The Arab Spring wave of the previous decade unsettled Riyadh, with regional rival Iran seen to be making gains in places like Yemen and Syria.➤Riyadh first tried a muscular approach to counter this as exemplified by its military intervention in Yemen and blockade against Qatar.➤When that approach failed to yield results, the Saudis changed tack and adopted a vigorous diplomatic position. 120584124Towards nationalismMBS’s new solution focused on strengthening the Saudi nationalist identity – as opposed to the kingdom just being custodian of Islam’s two holiest shrines. This perfectly dovetailed with MBS’s modernisation drive. Nationalism not only allowed MBS to push major social reforms like allowing women to drive and creating a domestic culture and sports industry, it also allowed him to reorient Saudi foreign policy.A new orientationMbS realised that in the changing geopolitical landscape, Saudi interests had to be at least on a par with the kingdom’s old leadership of the Arab-Muslim ummah.➤Taking a leaf out of neighbouring Qatar’s playbook, Riyadh decided to jump on the multipolarity bandwagon and strengthen connections with groupings such as Brics.➤Add to this Saudi Arabia’s new equation with Russia after the first phase of the Syrian conflict.➤Enhanced Saudi-China bilateral ties in recent years have also been a game changer.➤The resumption of the kingdom’s diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023 – which were suspended since 2016 – highlighted Riyadh’s newfound geopolitical flexibility.The Trump connectionTrump’s return to the White House has provided fresh impetus to the new Saudi position. 120583966➤In his first term, Trump had not only showered Riyadh with big-ticket military deals, but also looked the other way when MbS was condemned by the western world over the 2018 Jamal Khashoggi killing.➤Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has business dealings with Riyadh. Kushner’s private equity firm received $2bn investment from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund.➤Many other Trump supporters from America Inc too have long-standing commercial ties to the kingdom.➤The kingdom today has the flexibility to host Putin, Trump, Zelensky, Xi, the Iranians et al.Ace up Riyadh’s sleeveUnderpinning this new strategic dimension to Washington-Riyadh ties is a crucial Saudi card – normalisation of relations with Israel. The kingdom hasn’t yet signed on to the Abraham Accords that normalised relationsbetween Israel and some Arab nations. It was on the verge of doing so as part of a strategic deal with Washington before the Oct 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel derailed the process. With Israel – and US – keen to restart the normalisation process at some point in future, the Saudis realise they have massive leverage here.Bridging Arab Street and foreign policyFinally, MbS realises there is a gulf between Riyadh’s foreign policy and sentiments on the Arab street. MbS seeks to bridge this gap by turning the kingdom into a hub for international diplomacy. This also provides Riyadh with insurance against regional instability. This in turn bolsters the Saudi Vision 2030 project and creates long-term support for the monarchy as the custodian of the kingdom’s newfound international prestige. Therefore, expect MbS to continue playing the role of everyone’s peacemaker.