Why boots and bullets won’t solve Pak’s growing terror problem

The journey was supposed to be routine, almost boring. More than 400 passengers aboard the Jaffar Express were travelling through the rugged mountains of Balochistan on March 11 when the train suddenly came under attack.Terrorists affiliated with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) opened fire and brought the train to a halt before storming the carriages and taking passengers hostage. For more than 24 hours, Pakistan’s security forces were locked in a tense standoff with the terrorists in one of the most brazen attacks the country has ever witnessed.The standoff finally ended on the night of March 12, with the military’s media wing saying that all the hostages had been rescued while 33 terrorists involved in the attack were killed. At least 21 passengers were killed before the clearance operation began while four security personnel were martyred, according to Inter-Services Public Relations director general Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.But this is no isolated incident. In recent weeks, Pakistan has faced a surge in terrorism, ranging from suicide bombings and targeted assassinations to complex assaults on military bases and mosques. The escalating insurgency has exposed the state’s weakening grip over its restive provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, as both terrorists and separatist groups grow bolder.The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025 now ranks Pakistan as the world’s second most terrorism-affected country, after Burkina Faso — an unfamiliar name to many Pakistanis. According to the report, terrorism-related deaths surged by 45% in 2024 to 1,081, while attacks more than doubled from 517 to 1,099.This worsening security crisis stems from a complex concoction of domestic, regional and global factors. Domestically, outlawed groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and separatist outfits such as the BLA have intensified their campaigns, exploiting the nation’s deepening economic instability and political turmoil following the ouster of former premier Imran Khan in 2022.Regionally, the fall of Kabul in 2021 and the subsequent return of the Taliban to Afghanistan have emboldened terror outfits, including the TTP, while also fuelling violence from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).At the same time, Pakistan’s growing alliance with China has strained its relations with the US, leading to a decline in American support.With terror networks expanding and state authority eroding, Pakistan’s security challenges are reaching a breaking point. The question now is whether the government can reclaim control or will the insurgency further spiral out of hand. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/f8U5Am1DEcc?si=XuyApsIOHYpFEttFGrowing terrorism threatEven before the Jaffar Express hijacking, Pakistan has witnessed near-daily terror attacks in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in recent weeks, with several incidents standing out due to their scale, sophistication and lethality.On March 4, two suicide bombers affiliated with the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, a North Waziristan-based terror outfit, drove vehicles packed with explosives into a military base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Bannu district. The attackers subsequently stormed the compound, resulting in at least 18 deaths, including five soldiers, and numerous injuries.A day earlier, on March 3, a female suicide bomber sent by the BLA targeted a security forces convoy in Balochistan’s Kalat, leading to the death of a paramilitary soldier and injuring four others.Before that, the Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella grouping of Baloch insurgent organisations, announced plans to “intensify the blockade on all important highways of Balochistan to disrupt the logistical, economic, and military interests of the state”.Last month, a suicide bombing targeted a mosque within the Darul Uloom Haqqania seminary in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Nowshera district, an institution historically linked to the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. The attack killed six worshippers, including the seminary’s vice principal and former senator Maulana Hamidul Haq. No group has officially claimed responsibility, but security analysts and officials believe ISKP was behind the bombing.On February 19, Baloch terrorists killed seven labourers hailing from Punjab aboard a bus en route to Lahore. Two days before that, an affiliate of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group claimed responsibility for the killing of a police officer in Karachi’s Manghopir area.These are some of the major terror incidents that made headlines in the last month alone. In addition to these are also the smaller and mid-level attacks that have been carried out by various terrorist groups across the country.This, experts highlight, speaks of a critical trend: the attacks reflect the evolving tactics of terror outfits, their growing brazenness, and their increasing operational capabilities. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/M_4JlUmhhjY?si=BV33wiRkxWjWt_ldReligiously inspired militancyReligiously inspired militancy in Pakistan is not a new phenomenon. It is part of a broader global trend, with roots lying in the country’s role in the US-led War on Terror following the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. Groups such as the TTP, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group and Lashkar-i-Islam emerged as key players in the conflict, capitalising on instability and using Pakistan’s tribal areas as a battleground for violent extremism.For a time, these groups suffered major setbacks due to Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations, US drone strikes and internal divisions. The 2014 Operation Zarb-i-Azb proved particularly effective in dismantling terrorist strongholds in North Waziristan, significantly weakening the TTP’s operational capacity.“It was a costly operation, both financially and in human terms. Thousands were killed, millions displaced from their homes, and thousands of houses were destroyed during the military offensive,” said Lehaz Ali, a Peshawar-based journalist who covered the operation extensively.However, the situation took a dramatic turn after the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, which emboldened terrorist factions and provided them with logistical and ideological support.According to the GTI 2025, the TTP has now emerged as “Pakistan’s primary security challenge” and is ranked as the third deadliest terrorist group globally. The report states that the TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, marking a 90% increase compared to the previous year.A concerning trend highlighted in the report is the TTP’s strategic focus on attacking police forces, which accounted for 51% of its total attacks in 2024. Experts suggest that by targeting police personnel instead of military units, the TTP aims to undermine local governance while avoiding direct confrontation with better-equipped military forces.Meanwhile, the ISKP has also solidified its position as one of the world’s most dangerous terror groups, ranking among the top 10 global terrorist organisations in the GTI report. Comprising terrorists from Pakistan and Afghanistan, the ISKP has been responsible for several high-profile bombings in Pakistan, particularly targeting religious sites and security forces. medium119004887The Baloch insurgencyBaloch separatist groups, particularly the BLA and Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), have significantly escalated their insurgency in 2024, targeting Pakistani security forces, infrastructure and foreign investments. Their operations have intensified, with attacks surging from 116 in 2023 to 504 in 2024, while deaths quadrupling from 88 to 388, according to the terrorism index.The deadliest attack of 2024 was a BLA-orchestrated suicide bombing at Quetta railway station in November, which killed at least 25 civilians and security personnel. This attack underscored the BLA’s growing operational capacity and its ability to carry out high-profile, high-casualty assaults. Due to the rise in fatalities caused by its attacks, the BLA too has secured a position among the 10 deadliest terrorist organisations globally, according to the terrorism index.In recent years, separatist groups have increasingly targeted Chinese nationals and projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), viewing them as symbols of economic marginalisation. Attacks on Chinese engineers, consulates and CPEC infrastructure reflect the BLA’s strategic aim to disrupt foreign investments and draw global attention to their cause, the GTI observed.Over time, the BLA has also been able to enhance its propaganda through its media outlet ‘Hakkal’. The terror outfit has come a long way from producing low-quality videos to now producing documentary-style, high-quality videos, which was also seen in the recent train hijacking.“From 2018 to 2024, the BLA has released 89 propaganda videos and several publications. Around 41% of these propaganda videos were related to combat actions. Such videos are effectively utilised to motivate more recruits,” said Fahad Nabeel, who leads the Islamabad-based research consultancy, Geopolitical Insights.In recent months, the BLA has also started producing videos with both Urdu and English subtitles to reach a broader audience. “The militant group primarily employs five propaganda appeals — plain folks, bandwagon, card stacking, name calling and glittering generalities — in its propaganda videos. The BLA also takes advantage of pro-separatist digital media outlets, which help further disseminate pro-BLA narratives in cyberspace,” said Nabeel.The attack on the Jaffar Express and the mass hostage-taking also highlight a shift in Baloch terror tactics, with insurgents adopting more sophisticated and aggressive strategies aimed at paralysing state infrastructure. Due to frequent terrorist ambushes, where passengers were identified and killed after being taken off buses, and road blockages caused by protests, many people had started preferring train travel over road transport.Train services had only resumed in October after a two-month suspension following the BLA’s attacks on railway tracks in the province.Muhammad Amir Rana, director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, said that the recent surge in BLA attacks in regions such as Barkhan, Sibi and Harnai suggests that these terror outfits are now shifting their focus to central and eastern Balochistan for their subversive activities.“Until recently, it was widely believed that security operations in Kohlu, Barkhan, Sibi and adjacent areas — traditionally influenced by tribal chieftains — had weakened the insurgency, pushing it towards the Makran region and its neighbouring districts. This shift was attributed to a change in the BLA’s leadership, from tribal chieftains to middle-class student leaders,” Rana explained in his recent vlog.“However, the BLA’s resurgence in these regions, including some districts with a significant Pakhtun population, has raised new questions,” he added.He further noted that these districts hold strategic importance due to their proximity to South Punjab and northern Sindh. The recent BLA attacks in these areas suggest that the insurgent group is identifying new locations and expanding its operational footprint across the province. medium119004903The state’s responseAs Pakistan grapples with a resurgent wave of militancy, security analysts warn that the rising threats from Islamist extremists and separatist insurgents present a complex security challenge that cannot be addressed through military action alone. They argue that a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy, integrating political, economic and law enforcement measures, is crucial to restoring stability.“The threat spectrum that Pakistan currently faces is multi-faceted,” said Nabeel. Religious terrorist groups, particularly the TTP, have been benefiting from the patronage they receive in Afghanistan under the Afghan Taliban to launch cross-border attacks in Pakistan, he added. “The threat of ISKP also persists.”Despite launching several military campaigns over the years — including operations Zarb-i-Azb and Raddul Fasaad — the state has struggled to fully neutralise terror networks. The challenge, experts point out, lies not in military capacity but in political and institutional shortcomings that continue to impede counterterrorism efforts.Officials and analysts point to a range of structural issues that have hampered progress — political instability and weak governance that have prevented a cohesive national security strategy, a lack of consensus among political parties and civil society groups resulting in delayed critical policy decisions, dwindling public support for counterterrorism operations due to human rights concerns, civilian casualties and large-scale displacement, severe economic constraints that limit resources for security forces and infrastructure, reduced US assistance especially after its withdrawal from Afghanistan which has weakened Pakistan’s intelligence-sharing capabilities and resurgent terrorist groups emboldened by Taliban-ruled Afghanistan that provide ideological and logistical support to factions like the TTP.A key initiative to tackle terrorism, the National Action Plan (NAP), was introduced in 2014 following the Army Public School massacre — in which over 140 people, mostly children, were killed. The plan laid out a 20-point agenda focusing on a crackdown on terrorist networks, propaganda control, law enforcement reforms and others.However, nearly a decade later, experts argue that terrorism has not only survived but evolved into a more sophisticated and entrenched threat. The failure to implement NAP in full, coupled with Pakistan’s worsening political and economic crisis, has allowed terror groups to regroup and expand their influence.Nabeel added that the recent announcement of the formation of the Baloch Nationalist Army by BRAS and the BLA’s enhanced operational capabilities showcase the fact that the ongoing ethno-nationalist insurgency in Balochistan can further undermine Pakistan’s security apparatus. The primary focus of targeting security personnel and state bureaucracy has also facilitated these terror groups in exploiting local grievances and discontent observed among a sizeable population in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to their advantage, he added.With both the TTP and Baloch separatist groups escalating their attacks, analysts stress the need for a holistic approach — one that strengthens governance, fosters political unity, invests in socio-economic development and enhances regional diplomacy. Without these long-term measures, they warn, Pakistan risks further destabilisation and prolonged terrorist insurgency.This story was originally published in Dawn on March 13