Why shock election loss could throw Japan, Asia’s most stable democracy, into chaos

For years, Japan has managed to resist the populist waves that have swept Europe and the United States as disaffected electorates have demanded radical change.But as voters handed the longtime governing party of Japan a resounding blow in snap parliamentary elections on Sunday (Oct 27), there were signs that their frustration could convert one of the region’s most stable democracies into a much more chaotic one.On the surface, it appeared that the centre had held. Even though the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated Japanese politics for most of the postwar era, lost its majority in the lower house of parliament, the Constitutional Democrats, who won the second-most seats behind the LDP, are another relatively centrist party.But minority parties on the far left and far right both gained seats. And while Shigeru Ishiba, who was selected by the Liberal Democrats as prime minister only a month ago, blamed the party’s dismal showing on a protracted political finance scandal, analysts said the sense of grievance among voters went far deeper.“The last 30 years of stagnation and the deterioration of the living standards, especially for young people — the frustration is there,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat who is now a special adviser at the Canon Institute for Global Studies in Tokyo.Miyake said LDP-led governments had so far managed to contain voter discontent over flat wages, labour shortages and a rapidly aging population. But now, he added, “the doomsday has come” to Japan. The Liberal Democrats, custodians of the status quo, have been put on notice.“This is not a simple political money scandal,” Miyake said. “It’s much more structural and longer term.” medium114724616The unaccustomed electoral disarray has left it unclear who will lead the government going forward. The hobbled LDP has 30 days to try to bring more partners on board and form a ruling coalition. The opposition is seen as unlikely to be able to bridge its divides and put together a government.Ishiba, 27 days into his prime ministership, was also facing questions about how long he will last. During a news conference on Monday (Oct 28), he acknowledged the “harsh criticism from the public” and promised to introduce more transparency in political fundraising and accounting.No longer business and usualIn many ways, pressure had been building for years under a deceptively placid political landscape, where it appeared the Japanese public would put up with business as usual indefinitely.Successive administrations led by Liberal Democrats “looked very stable, but these governments postponed real policy changes and left serious problems in the Japanese economy and society,” said Jiro Yamaguchi, a political scientist at Hosei University in Tokyo.With eight opposition parties winning seats, it will be very difficult for them to present a unified new vision for the country.“The fragmentation and polarisation of the party system appears to be starting from this election,” Yamaguchi said. While choice can be one sign of political health, the potential for voters to flee to parties with more extreme positions could be “a very dangerous symptom for democracy,” he added.medium114725073And although voters clearly wanted to send a message to the Liberal Democrats, it’s not clear they chose a consistent alternative.“The diversity of parties that achieved gains in this election show that there’s not one coherent vision for moving Japan forward,” said Kristi Govella, an associate professor with the Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies at the University of Oxford.Part of the reason the Liberal Democrats were able to weather public discontent for so long was that Shinzo Abe, a talented politician who was Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, enforced party discipline and persuaded the public that stability was more important than sweeping change.But after Abe was assassinated in 2022, the public grew increasingly disaffected by emerging scandals that had remained hidden. Abe’s killer said he held a grudge against him because of the former prime minister’s links to the Unification Church, a fringe religious group that had taken thousands of dollars from the gunman’s mother.Once the Japanese media swiftly revealed that dozens of Liberal Democratic lawmakers were also supported by the church’s political arm, approval ratings for the party spiralled downward. The public grew even more disgruntled with the more recent political finance scandals.medium114725172Time to clean the houseAnalysts said they were not sure the results from Sunday’s election would improve the public mood or yield much substantive change.“This isn’t going to make the Japanese public feel happier about their democracy,” said Tobias Harris, founder and principal of Japan Foresight, a consultancy in Washington.If the Liberal Democrats end up forming a minority government along with their current coalition partner, Komeito, or recruiting a few minority parties through backroom negotiations, that “is not going to result in a whole lot of love for the government that comes out of it,” Harris said.Analysts said that even if Ishiba can retain the prime ministership, he will face significant challenges in his efforts to purge corruption from the party. Although he was selected as the LDP’s leader because of his perceived public popularity and willingness to criticise his colleagues, during his few weeks in power, he has not shown an ability to clean house effectively.More than 45 politicians were implicated in allegations of hiding proceeds from political fundraisers and taking kickbacks, but Ishiba had announced that the party would withdraw its endorsement from just a dozen candidates in Sunday’s election. And last week, the Japanese media revealed that the LDP transferred 20 million yen (about $131,000) to local branches of candidates who had lost the party’s endorsement.Ishiba faces opponents within his own party, which means “he can’t make any reforms,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor of politics at Waseda University in Tokyo.But “if the LDP doesn’t want to lose more seats, they should do something” before an upper house election scheduled for summer, Nakabayashi said. “That was the message from the people.”