How India-Canada ties have hit the lowest point under Trudeau

On March 4, 2011, then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper officially inaugurated the ‘Year of India in Canada’ to celebrate “the extensive and rapidly growing relationship” between the two countries in “virtually all areas”.More than a decade later, the diplomatic ties have hit rock bottom, thanks to Harper’s successor Justin Trudeau’s unusually “hostile” attitude towards India.At the centre of this slide are India’s concerns about Canada giving Khalistanis a free hand to run their separatist agenda and Ottawa’s allegation that India is using non-state actors to target Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.Things turned ugly last year when Trudeau said there were credible allegations that India’s government had links to the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. New Delhi denied the allegations at the time, but said the slain man was involved in “terrorism”.Nijjar was fatally shot in his pickup truck in June 2023 after he left the gurdwara he led in the city of Surrey, British Columbia.This year-long diplomatic feud escalated dramatically on October 14 as New Delhi recalled its high commissioner Sanjay Verma from Ottawa following the Trudeau government’s allegation that the top diplomat and several other Indian officials were “persons of interest” in the Nijjar murder case.A Washington Post report said Canada had expelled six diplomats, including Verma, but the Indian side insisted they had been recalled.The same day, New Delhi said it had expelled six Canadian diplomats, including the deputy high commissioner and charge d’affaires (acting high commissioner) Stewart Wheeler. They were asked to leave India by October 19.Before that, New Delhi summoned Wheeler and told him that the “baseless targeting” of Verma and other diplomats and officials in Canada was “completely unacceptable”.“We have no faith in the current Canadian government’s commitment to ensure their [Indian diplomats’] security. Therefore, Government of India has decided to withdraw the high commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials,” New Delhi said. It also accused Canada of “pandering to the anti-India separatist agenda”.Foreign policy experts say that the Trudeau government’s actions have damaged the ties with India and the current relationship is so bad that it would take a long time to heal. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/y21vUaYoq9k?si=mgJQ4eN3Sbplk3X6Why is Trudeau doing so?Trudeau’s aggression towards India coincides with the Canadian PM’s sliding popularity ratings at home and growing dissent against him, which may have enhanced the need for him to woo the politically significant Sikh community ahead of next year’s federal election.Amid complaints over rising cost of living, a struggling healthcare system and growing crime rate, an Ipsos poll showed that just 26% saw Trudeau as the best PM candidate, 19 percentage points below Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.This comes after two electoral setbacks. Last month, the ruling Liberal Party lost in Montreal, seen as a safe seat, just three months after being defeated in a special election in Toronto after holding the seat for three decades.To make matters worse, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party withdrew support to the minority Liberal government days before the Montreal loss. Singh has been a supporter of the Khalistan movement.There have been calls from Trudeau’s party colleagues for him to step down, as many experts are predicting that the Liberals will face the same plight as the Conservatives in the UK. Trudeau is holding on after surviving two no-confidence motions in Parliament.Canada has more than 7.7 lakh Sikhs, the fourth-largest ethnic community, with a section backing the demand for Khalistan, a separate Sikh homeland carved out of India. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/ppt-9LnPG5M?si=vHBMsR3pBXwMllzGIs there a China angle?India believes Trudeau’s move to escalate matters over Nijjar’s killing was triggered by his deposition scheduled for October 16 before an influential commission to explain the charge that his government has been derelict in preventing China’s interference in domestic politics.Top sources in New Delhi maintained that Trudeau fired his fresh volley of charges, essentially a reiteration of his earlier accusations, on the eve of the appearance of functionaries of his office before the Foreign Interference Commission, which is holding a hearing into the charge of the Liberal government having failed to stop China from having a free run in Ottawa.“The effort seems to be a counter to the damning perception by manufacturing a narrative that it was India which was meddling in internal affairs,” a source familiar with details of multiple rounds of parleys between the two governments since last year told TOI.He also said that despite the feverish sabre-rattling, Trudeau and his security establishment, including the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RMCP), which broke away from its protocol to go public with its accusations, have yet to produce evidence to back up their “outrageous charge”.“Insinuations and show of righteous indignation cannot be a substitute for evidence,” said another top source as he debunked the Trudeau regime’s claim that they had shared strong evidence with India in support of their case.“In contrast, we have shared incontrovertible evidence of terrorists like Nijjar and his sympathisers using Canada as their base. We cited specific instances of crimes with dates and other details so strong that they had to acknowledge Nijjar’s involvement in terror activities,” the source said. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/nP8oSrM3F_s?si=mrkG2ehwcYwOC8nwRole of the Bishnoi gangThe RCMP, which is investigating the Nijjar case, accused Indian government agents of being linked to an organised crime group called the Bishnoi gang.India’s anti-terror probe body, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), describes the group as a criminal gang headed by Lawrence Bishnoi, whose lawyer says he contests more than 40 cases accusing him of crimes such as murder and extortion, with many trials yet to begin.India has previously rejected as “preposterous” all Canadian accusations about the murder.The NIA has accused the 31-year-old law graduate, in jail since 2015, of running a trans-national crime syndicate.In statements, the NIA has said Bishnoi runs his syndicate from jails in different states, as well as countries such as Canada, through associates, who have been in contact with “pro-Khalistani” elements in neighbouring Nepal and other countries.However, Bishnoi has said he opposes Khalistan, and was not “anti-national”, in an interview with a private news channel last year. The video of the interview has since been taken down and police are investigating how the video came about.Canada did not make specific charges, but the RCMP said there was “specific targeting” of those supporting Khalistan in the country.It named the Bishnoi group as having earlier claimed some of those actions, and accused it of being linked to Indian agents.Some high-profile cases against the gang include the 2022 killing of a popular Punjabi rapper named Sidhu Moose Wala. Police, who arrested more than 20 people, have named Bishnoi as a key suspect.In a video released by media channels, Bishnoi also threatened to kill Bollywood actor Salman Khan in 2018. Shots were fired near Khan’s house earlier this year.The police arrested two gunmen for an attack they later said was at the behest of Bishnoi’s group.On October 12, gunmen allegedly linked to the Bishnoi gang shot dead former Maharashtra minister Baba Siddique in Mumbai’s upscale Bandra suburb.Police have arrested three persons in this connection and are looking for two others who are on the run. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/fcL8mDb0bqk?si=sXp_MVHFBlWjUpQr‘Trudeau is saying same old things’The RCMP alleged that Indian diplomats and consular officials based in Canada leveraged their official positions to engage in clandestine activities, such as collecting information for the Indian government that was used to target members of the South Asian community.They did so directly or through their proxies, and other individuals who acted voluntarily or through coercion, according to Canada’s national police force.At a press conference, Trudeau accused India of using its diplomats and organised crime to attack Canadian citizens and make them feel unsafe in their own country, calling it a “monumental mistake” by New Delhi.“From the beginning, as of last summer, we have worked closely with our Five Eyes partners, particularly with the US, where they have gone through a similar pattern of behaviour from India in regards to an attempted extrajudicial killing,” Trudeau said. “We will continue to work with our allies as we stand up together for the rule of law.”Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US.India strongly refuted Trudeau’s claims, stating that the assertions made by Canadian officials about presenting evidence in the Nijjar case are untrue.“Canadian PM Trudeau’s press conference yesterday was the same old Trudeau saying the same old things for the same old reasons,” government sources told new agency ANI. medium114279813What’s the progress in the US case?India has stated it is taking seriously the allegations of a plot to kill an American citizen, the US on October 15 said as a team of visiting Indian officials had a meeting with the officials of the state department and department of justice (DoJ) in Washington DC.US prosecutors last November charged Indian national Nikhil Gupta for an alleged plot to eliminate Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Pannun in New York. Gupta was arrested in the Czech Republic in June and extradited to the US.New Delhi has denied the allegations but has constituted an internal team to look into the matter. Pannun continues to freely threaten Indian officials and diplomats.“I don’t have a readout on the meeting yet. The meeting was here as a follow-up on conversations we have been having with the Government of India at the senior-most levels over the past several months,” state department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters on October 15.“They have told us that they are taking the allegations seriously, that the activities contained in the DoJ indictment do not represent government policy,” Miller said in response to a question.The Biden administration has largely been supportive of the Trudeau government in Canada in its spat with India, having in the first place tipped off Ottawa about the alleged New Delhi-backed effort to punish Khalistani radicals and terrorists abroad.Washington has been less public about the wrangle than Ottawa in an effort not to derail larger strategic objectives. Nevertheless, the state department statement cleared that it will continue to hold India’s feet to the fire in the matter. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/8xFmBM6WyJU?si=BJ5Pb0olwxuhkpOAA long time to healExperts say the diplomatic standoff will make it difficult for New Delhi and Ottawa to move forward with a once-promising partnership, and the strained ties could take a long time to heal.Sushant Sareen, a senior fellow at Observer Research Foundation, called for an investigation into Canada’s interference in India’s internal affairs. He also emphasised the need to probe Canadian NGOs and embassies that purportedly support Khalistani elements.Speaking about the deteriorating relations between the two nations, he said that even if Trudeau was not there in power, the relations would not get better soon.“The poison that Trudeau has put into this relationship will take a lot of time to heal, and it won’t happen overnight,” Sareen told ANI.Several former diplomats said New Delhi has taken the “right step in retaliation”.They also suggested that Ottawa’s “false propaganda” stems from Trudeau’s “desperation” to garner “support from radical elements” within his country to shore up his chances in the next election.“He [Trudeau] is finding ghost where none exists. So, he has now come up with a new propaganda... in anticipation of getting support of Sikh extremists,” said former diplomat and author Rajiv Dogra.Trudeau thinking of an “imaginary accusation is most unfortunate, most unstatesman-like”, he said, adding this is “not a wise way” of approaching things.Dilip Sinha, a former ambassador to Greece, said Trudeau is “trailing in opinion polls, so he thinks he is going to lose”.“He [Trudeau] thinks that he needs the support of radical Khalistani elements who have a very strong, forceful base in Canada,” Sinha alleged.Trudeau is bent upon sacrificing the relationship with India to woo these elements, he charged. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/g8UkjqYK82c?si=4XwD4xVSZuQLUM8O medium114279661Highs and lows in Indo-Canadian tiesApril 2015: PM Narendra Modi visits Ottawa, Toronto and Vancouver; holds discussions with Canada’s political, business and academic leaders, and addresses a gathering of around 10,000 members of diaspora and friends of India. Several agreements/MoUs signed.February 2018: The two nations formalise a ‘Framework for Cooperation between India and Canada on Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism’. This was in addition to the already existing Joint Working Group (JWG) on Counter Terrorism set up in 1997.Trudeau faces a major embarrassment after Khalistani terrorist Jaspal Atwal was photographed with the Canadian PM’s now estranged wife Sophie Gregoire at an event in Mumbai as part of Trudeau’s first state visit to India. Atwal was convicted but later acquitted in a plot to assassinate a Punjab minister in 1986.December 2020: Trudeau extends support to Indian farmers protesting against three farm laws, calling the situation “concerning”. His naked interference in India’s internal politics draws criticism.June 4, 2023: Foreign minister S Jaishankar slams Canada for allowing a parade float that depicted the 1984 assassination of then-PM Indira Gandhi by her bodyguards, viewing it as glorifying Sikh separatist violence.June 18, 2023: Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar shot outside a gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia.September: Trudeau visits India to attend the G20 Summit. On the sidelines, Modi raises “strong concerns” about the continuous “anti-India activities” by extremist elements in Canada, and states that it is essential for the two countries to cooperate in dealing with such threats.Khalistani separatists hold a ‘referendum’ in Surrey. Designated terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun among key attendees. He uses intimidating language against Modi, Jaishankar and other leaders.Back home, Trudeau makes a stunning revelation in the House of Commons that there was credible intelligence linking India’s government to Nijjar’s killing.India swiftly retaliates by issuing a statement that denied any involvement in the issue, terming them “absurd and politically motivated”.India suspends visa services in Canada after Trudeau’s allegation.October: Canada pulls out 41 diplomats from India and halts its visa and consular services in Chandigarh, Mumbai and Bengaluru. This came after New Delhi conveyed its concerns to Ottawa over the disproportionate number of diplomats in India and sought a ‘parity’ in diplomatic strength.November: A New York court unseals an indictment revealing a foiled murder-for-hire plot, allegedly orchestrated by an Indian diplomat.India’s anti-terror agency NIA files a case against Pannun, stating that he warned Air India passengers in video messages shared on social media that their lives were in danger.A senior Biden administration official says American authorities thwarted a plot to kill Pannun in the US.January 2024: An independent inquiry into foreign interference in Canada requests that Ottawa provide information on potential Indian involvement in election meddling. New Delhi denies the allegations, reiterating its long-held stance that Canada permits Sikh separatists to interfere in India’s internal matters.May 3: Canadian police arrest four people — Karan Brar (22), Kamalpreet Singh (22), Amardeep Singh (22) and Karanpreet Singh (28) — for their alleged role in Nijjar’s murder.October: Trudeau accuses agents of the Indian government of engaging in “clandestine information-gathering techniques, coercive behaviour targeting Canadians, and involvement in threatening and violent acts”.With inputs from Sachin Parashar, Chidanand Rajghatta and agencies.