Why we must expect the worst and prepare for full-scale war with Pak

medium120987455For the Pakistani army, Kashmir has always been the justification for its political legitimacy. It has used Kashmir to allege India’s intention to keep Pakistan on boil, and even undo the effects of Partition. Alarmist as this seems, Rawalpindi has had to clutch at straws to keep itself in the political mainstream after military loss of face in 1965, 1971 and 1999.General Asim Munir literally stated his own — and, ostensibly, Pakistan’s institutional — position when he referred to Kashmir as the “jugular vein” while raking up the wounds of Partition a few days before the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack.The targeting of Hindus at Pahalgam was doubly sinister — to feed a divide within India, and to try and weaken the nation internally. (That slain naval officer Lt Vinay Narwal’s widow Himanshi could plead for this to not be made a ground to attack Muslims and Kashmiris in India was a huge moral defeat for terror organisations. Sadly, she wasn’t spared hate from many of her own countrymen and women.) medium121005973The latest: Is it a war now?Late on Thursday night, Pakistan ratcheted up the confrontation, sending a swarm of drones and missiles into Jammu. Majority of the drones and missiles were neutralised by India’s air defence system. Earlier in the day, Indian drones had managed to strike deep into Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, destroying some of Pakistan’s vital defence radars. medium121005973Munir is aware of the popularity that Imran Khan enjoyed as prime minister, and continues to even after losing power. This rankles with the military establishment, which is averse to seeing civilian leaders being their own people. Khan, in the course of the Balakot strikes, was able to show restraint. That episode culminated in a neat quid pro quo for the Pulwama terror attack. This time, with India’s post-Pahalgam retaliation, there are two major differences:* Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is unlikely to pull his weight against the will of the army, which is likely to be itching for confrontation. Sharif has already labelled India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the attacks on Pakistani terrorist bases on May 7 as being an “act of war”. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/vIuz_bYyzik?si=Q49GvVyaLX9WrO77* India’s intent seems to be more aggressive, drawn from the Israeli playbook. It’s only after 1971 that India has struck this deep into Pakistan’s territory, as far as Bahawalpur and Muridke in Punjab, further ‘in’ than Kotli and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). And, unlike Balakot, this is a tri-service operation, bringing the navy into the picture.With Pakistan suspending the Simla Agreement, the Line of Control (LoC) has, in a sense, now become notional. So, the fluidity (and, therefore, uncertainty) of the situation is manifestly higher. Indian dams are potential retaliatory targets, as is all territory along the borders of Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.India’s official statement on Operation Sindoor is that “actions have been focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considerable restraint in the selection of targets and method of execution”. This may not fly with the Pakistani side, which will now have to decide whether the situation remains “non-escalatory”.By all accounts, escalation is inevitable, as the political establishment in Pakistan is now inclined towards giving the army a free hand. China has murmured its support separately — calling India’s operation “regrettable”, even while urging “both sides [to] exercise restraint” — and the situation is far more internationalised than before. While this can mean backchannel negotiations, it’s unlikely for things to peter out soon. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/PyinKVGTuw0?si=rE_DL8cBCZsAjXyASocial media sabre-rattling and the barrage of disinformation also feed the narrative. When India announced war drills on May 7, one was inclined to think the 1971 blueprint of a slow build-up and rapid attack at the end of the year was likely. However, the strikes suggest the government believes India is both war-ready and up for a possible conflict along the China border as well.In many ways, we must expect the worst, and brave full-scale war. Even if that does not result in such linear fashion, localised conflict across the border is going to be amplified. Sadly, Kashmir is likely to become collateral damage again.Post abrogation of Article 370 and elections in Jammu and Kashmir, India was lulled into believing “all is well”. That bubble has been burst. Questions around strategic and intelligence failure in Pahalgam are probably now on the backburner, but cannot evaporate. The four terrorists who carried out the attacks are still at large and local support is being investigated.What has stood out is the sheer courage and selflessness of local Kashmiris in resisting the attacks, standing by victims, and pleading their helplessness at the recursive injustice that they seem to be cursed with. How we normalise Kashmir in the face of Pakistani ‘interventions’ is going to be the true test of India’s statesmanship in the days to come.For now, India has called Gen Munir’s bluff. And as is the case with Pakistan, at key moments in its history, it is the generals that call the shots. And this one is unlikely to go down without a fight.The writer is author of Poles Apart: The Military and Democracy in India and PakistanTOI+ complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here