Why is North Korea deploying troops to help Russia?

Heads of state rarely send thousands of their soldiers to fight in someone else’s war without expecting something in return.So, the decision by Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, to deploy 3,000 troops to the battlefield in Ukraine has left American officials with several urgent questions: What is President Vladimir Putin of Russia giving Kim? Could Russia help North Korea develop more lethal missiles and nuclear capabilities? And could the exchange be evidence of a dangerous new military alliance?National security and intelligence officials in the US said on October 23 that the answers to those questions remained murky, even as they released evidence showing that the troops had been transported by ship from the North Korean port city of Wonsan to Vladivostok in Russia.John Kirby, the national security spokesperson at the White House, said intelligence officials had found no evidence of a specific promise by Russia to help bolster the North Korean military. But he told reporters that there was plenty that Russia could do to help Kim: “That’s what’s so concerning to us.”Analysts and experts who have spent decades tracking the military efforts of Pyongyang say Kim is most likely seeking help from Russia in two broad categories: short-term assistance with his military capabilities and longer-term strategic assurances that could bolster Kim’s ability to confront the US and his neighbours.“There is no stronger signal that one country can send to another than sending troops into the battlefield,” said Victor Cha, a professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Cha said sending the troops would give the North Korean leader leverage to ask Russia for a lot in return.“At a symbolic level, and in terms of Kim’s asking price, it’s a pretty high price,” he said. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/jcW6CM6boLU?si=xcWNqoPmZcXACTLoThe deepening relationship between Putin and Kim was documented in June, when they met and signed a document pledging cooperation. It said that “in case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay”.Officials believe that document — known as the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership — paved the way for the dispatch of North Korean soldiers to Ukraine and other cooperation.In the short term, analysts say Kim is probably looking for several concrete things from his Russian counterpart.North Korea needs help perfecting its missile capabilities. Recent reports suggest that North Korean missiles used by Russia against Ukraine have not performed as well as expected. Russia could help Kim make them better.Kim might also seek help advancing his nuclear programme, including his goal of acquiring a quiet, nuclear-powered submarine capable of launching multiple ballistic missiles that could reach the US or other allies.North Korea has repeatedly conducted nuclear tests in the past few years as a way of demonstrating its weapons capabilities. Last year, it showed off what it claimed was its smallest-ever nuclear warhead, raising concerns that it could deliver one on smaller, solid-fuel rockets that could reach its regional adversaries. medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/2XpJMjbI_ww?si=PHv6DlaeuB5MinxkNorth Korea has had less success developing the kind of countermeasures that allow missiles to evade sophisticated, anti-missile systems deployed by the US and its allies. North Korea also has not met its goal of launching three military satellites — an area where Russia could be very helpful.Russia could also help modernise North Korea’s conventional forces. Most of the tanks, planes and other equipment used by North Koreans are ageing, Soviet-era weapons that are in critical need of replacing and updating. If Putin wanted to, he could repay Kim’s help in Ukraine by providing newer, more modern weapons.And it could continue providing North Korea money, food and other direct assistance.But Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who spent 40 years in government dealing with North Korea, said the bigger danger to the US and its allies could be the longer-term goals that Kim could try to leverage in exchange for helping Russia in Ukraine.“Now he’s got a path to survival,” Seiler said. “He’s got friends that have his back, and the pressure and threats from the US and the international community regarding his nuclear programme — you can now blow them all off. He’s got a friend in Vladimir Putin.” medium nocaptionhttp://youtu.be/m0n2nxMhNME?si=ObCYlw6Miv8rISLpThat friendship could have lasting effects on American foreign policy and the way nations interact around the globe.In an article in Foreign Affairs this month, US secretary of state Antony Blinken warned that “a small number of countries — principally Russia, with the partnership of Iran and North Korea, as well as China — are determined to alter the foundational principles of the international system”.In particular, Blinken noted that Russia’s two-year struggle on the battlefield in Ukraine had forced Putin to turn to North Korea for help. Weeks before it was known that North Korea had supplied troops to Russia, Blinken said it was clear that North Korea had already exacted a price for their assistance.Putin “agreed to share Russia’s advanced weapons technology with North Korea, exacerbating an already grave threat to Japan and South Korea,” Blinken wrote. “He and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un revived a Cold War-era pact pledging to provide military aid if either one went to war.”Cha said the troop movements suggested that Kim was in a position to demand even more from Putin as he pursues his goal of becoming a modern, nuclear state with the ability to directly threaten the US and the entire region.“For the first time in the history of this relationship, he’s in the driver’s seat,” Cha said of the North Korean leader. “Why wouldn’t he exact a high price?”