Why Op Sindoor could be the start of a new season of confrontation

medium120971404In the military domain naming an operation is as important as the operation itself. Thus, Op Sindoor bears the symbolism of response to the anger which gripped India on April 22 after the Pahalgam attack. However, it doesn’t end here and could even be the beginning of a new season of confrontation.* After Feb 2019 when the Balakot operation was executed post Pulwama terror attack, we always knew that another attack of serious proportions would be repeated some day. The Balakot strike was not an act of deterrence but a strategic message; it was controlled escalation at a lower rung. I had wondered then what would be our response the next time some big terror attack took place. Six years later Pahalgam happened against the run of play. It was even more serious than Uri or Pulwama and demanded an Indian response of higher proportion.* We knew that an Indian military response would come sooner than later, although I continued to wonder whether India would finally hit where it hurts Pakistan most — Pakistan’s Punjab heartland. And finally, GOI and the armed forces did, and did so effectively. The decision to hit Pakistan’s heartland and the choice of targets may have been finally decided by the preliminary findings of NIA that mentioned the conspiracy between Pak army, ISI and Lashkar-e-Taiba; the deepest of the deep state that runs Pakistan’s security and foreign policy interests.* The nine targets selected were a mix of those in PoJK and in Pakistan’s Punjab. They were terror holding and training facilities, camps and launchpads in the vicinity of both LoC and Pak Punjab heartland. The selection was apt because it included headquarters of both Hafiz Saeed’s LeT at Muridke and JeM at Bahawalpur. Although Azhar Masood’s JeM may not have had a hand in Pahalgam, nevertheless its involvement in the larger terror machinery demanded that it too be brought into the ambit of response. Camps in Sialkot, earlier involved with the Pathankot attack, were also targeted.What’s important to note is that Muridke, Sialkot and Bahawalpur facilities are close to prominent headquarters of the Pak army. The strikes, therefore, signify India now has the capability to target even these should the need arise.* The location of the terror camps had been known for long. What India’s strikes demonstrate is the vulnerability of the terrorist leadership to such targeted operations. It is something akin to Israeli capabilities acquired over time. This introduces a different dimension to the entire gamut of counterterror operations of a strategic nature.In Op Sindoor, it’s known that joint operation munitions of all three services were used through different modes of launch. Kamikaze drones, launched from standoff distances without crossing borders, became the final weapons of delivery. More on the weapons systems will be known as details unravel, but it’s clear that India’s efforts in the employment of a new generation of weapons systems have successfully come into being.* The final damage assessment is a part of detail and to my mind not so relevant. In Balakot, we were more focused on the results of the strike. It’s quite clear this time that counting bodies is unimportant. It’s the event itself, the decision, the multiple targets and their nature, the depth of strikes and the choice of the geographical focus that have made the difference.* As usual, Pakistan’s mastery over the domain of fake news has ensured attempts at manipulated narratives that should just be ignored. But we do need to be concerned about two things.* First, the likelihood of a response from the Pakistani deep state. It appears to be unlikely in the conventional domain; Pakistan does not have it in it, despite all analyses of its irrationality. It’s in the sub-conventional domain that this cannot be restricted by any of the effects of Op Sindoor. Already, LoC has become hot with the ceasefire of 2021 no longer in existence. Heavy casualties have been sustained by our civilian population in J&K’s Poonch sector. This is Pakistan’s frustration at play.* The army must now ensure that it uses its tech superiority to neutralise all Pak assets involved in cross-LoC firing. There are several areas where we have domination due to terrain configuration; this must be exploited. However, we also need to safeguard our internal security to ensure that events such as Shri Amarnath Ji Yatra and the Char Dham Yatra are conducted safely. Pakistan, after all, has no remorse about the targets it chooses.The writer is a retired Lieutenant GeneralTOI+ complete coverage of Operation Sindoor here