In Chinese social media discourse and WeChat feeds, a new term has emerged that reflects current sense of economic stagnation and societal despair: "garbage time of history". Coined by essayist Hu Wenhui in 2023, this phrase draws an analogy from sports, where "garbage time" refers to the final moments of a game when the outcome is already decided. Hu's concept refers to an epoch when a nation, much like a team in a losing game, seems to be merely running out the clock—stagnating, rather than collapsing.
As China grapples with its most significant economic downturn in decades, the term has taken on a life of its own. It resonates across social media, infiltrates everyday conversations, and provides a sharp critique of the country’s present trajectory under President Xi Jinping. The result is a sentiment that hovers like a storm cloud over the so-called “Chinese century,” a vision of national prosperity now dimmed by realities of stagnation and systemic inertia.
Historical parallels and modern pessimismHu Wenhui’s analogy reaches back to the Soviet Union under Leonid Brezhnev, a period defined by stagnation after its ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Just as the Soviet Union’s decline was a drawn-out affair, with little hope of recovery, Hu argues that modern China could be entering its own "garbage time." In this light, he draws comparisons to earlier periods of Chinese decline, such as the late Ming Dynasty under the Wanli Emperor in 1587—a time when the empire, once vibrant and expansive, was visibly in decay but had yet to fall.
Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, notes, many Chinese see no hope for economic recovery as long as the country adheres to the same policies that led to the slump in the first place. "Many in China are convinced their country is trapped in a similarly futile dead end, its prospects unlikely to brighten as long as its direction remains unchanged," Pei wrote in a column in Bloomberg.
An economy stuck in limboThe root of this pessimism is grounded in China's current economic woes. The collapse of the real estate sector has shaken the middle class, eroding its wealth and curbing consumer spending. Mortgage debt has become a stranglehold on millions of households, while unemployment rates rise, particularly among young people. The result is a widespread “negative wealth effect,” where diminished financial security stifles consumption, exacerbating the very economic malaise it seeks to escape.
Chine unleashes stimulus packageChina announced a broad range of stimulus measures on Tuesday to support the faltering economy, stabilise the housing sector and restore market confidence. Stocks and bonds jumped after the announcement.