Mark Carney’s election as Prime Minister of Canada could mark a dramatic shift in strained India-Canada relations that deteriorated under Justin Trudeau. For India, this change in leadership opens a window to recalibrate diplomatic, economic, and immigration ties with one of the top destinations for Indian students and skilled workers.
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What went wrong under Trudeau: From Nijjar to visa chaosIndia-Canada ties hit rock bottom in 2023 after Trudeau accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The fallout was immediate: diplomats were expelled, visa services were suspended, and both countries stopped talking.
Now, with Carney at the helm, India sees an opportunity to turn the page. He has avoided direct reference to the Nijjar issue, instead calling for “mutual respect” to resolve “strains on the relationship”, which is a major departure from Trudeau’s confrontational tone.
‘India is incredibly important’: Carney’s outreachCarney’s language has been markedly different. Just before polls, he said India was “incredibly important—personally, economically, and strategically.” His presence at a Ram Navami event during the campaign was seen as a symbolic olive branch to India and Canada’s 1.8 million-strong Indo-Canadian community.
Observers say Carney’s desire to reduce economic dependence on the US, especially under a second Trump presidency, is pushing him to strengthen ties with key partners like India.
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Why this matters for indian students & professionalsCanada is the top destination for Indian students, but the dream is fading fast:
- 2023: 278,860 Indian students in Canada (27% of all foreign students)
- 2024: Intake dropped by more than 40% (source: IRCC + Canadian immigration lawyers)
- Reason: Cap on permits, housing crisis, and anti-India sentiment in politics
Carney has backed the Century Initiative, a plan to grow Canada’s population to 100 million by 2100 through immigration. That could mean more opportunities for skilled Indian professionals, especially in healthcare, construction, and tech. But there’s a catch.
Carney’s new immigration roadmap includes:- A cap on international student permits
- Net cut of 150,000 temporary residents by 2025-26
- More scrutiny of private colleges
- Crackdown on “exploitative” work permit-linked visa systems
For Indian students, this means only top-ranked colleges and job-ready programs may secure permits and PR eligibility in the coming years.
Khalistan influence may shrink as Jagmeet Singh exitsJagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party and Trudeau’s coalition partner, was seen in India as soft on Khalistani extremism. His defeat and decision to step down removes a key domestic political reason for Canada's silence on Khalistani activism.
Sources in India’s intelligence community say they are already noticing less public Khalistan-linked mobilisation in Canada post-election—suggesting that space may shrink under Carney’s rule.
India has made it clear it will judge Canada not just on rhetoric, but on action against extremist elements that target Indian diplomats and missions.
Trade deal talks could be back on trackTalks on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada were paused in September 2023. But the economic logic of closer ties remains strong:
- CAD 13.5 billion in bilateral trade in 2023
- Indian sectors interested: IT, pharma, agriculture, clean energy
- Canadian sectors interested: Fertiliser, oil/gas, education, AI
Carney has publicly said that Canada must reduce its overdependence on the US. India—now Canada’s 10th largest trading partner—could become central to that effort.
What India will watch for nextIndia’s expectations from Carney are clear:
- Visible action against Khalistani elements
- Resumption of visa normalcy for students and professionals
- Revival of trade and tech dialogue
- Rebuilding trust at the diplomatic level—possibly with a Modi-Carney meet at G20 or UNGA
Carney’s early moves, including reshuffling Canada’s foreign ministry, will be watched closely. Diplomats in New Delhi say they’re looking for “substantive change, not just softer language.”
The India equation: what’s at stake- 1.8 million Indo-Canadians (5% of Canada’s population)
- Nearly 1 million Indian passport holders living in Canada
- CAD 6.5 billion contributed by Indian students annually to Canada’s economy
- Over 140,000 Indians granted permanent residency in 2023
Carney has the mandate, now india waits for the movesWith Trudeau out, Khalistan politics weakened, and a leader who sees India as “strategically vital,” New Delhi is ready to re-engage—but not without watching Carney’s next steps.
For Indian students, professionals, and families with links to Canada, the change in power isn’t just about diplomacy. It’s about getting their futures back on track.