Decades-old Soviet spacecraft still orbiting Earth may crash back around May 10

A half-ton Soviet-era spacecraft originally meant to land on Venus is expected to make an uncontrolled return to Earth around May 10, according to space debris experts monitoring its orbit.
While the exact reentry location remains unknown, predictions suggest it could impact anywhere between 52 degrees north and south latitude, spanning regions from Canada to Cape Horn in South America.
The object, known as Kosmos 482, was launched in 1972 as part of the USSR’s ambitious Venera programme, but a rocket malfunction left it stranded in Earth orbit.
According to Nasa, the spacecraft split into four parts after a failed attempt to reach a Venus transfer trajectory. Two pieces decayed within days, while the lander module, built to survive Venus’ hostile atmosphere, remained in orbit for over 50 years.
Dutch space tracker Marco Langbroek, who has closely followed the probe’s orbit, was quoted by news agency AP as saying that the spacecraft could reenter Earth's atmosphere at around 150 mph (242 km/h). “While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” he said, adding that the likelihood of impact injury is comparable to that of being hit by a meteorite. “You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.”
Langbroek said that the probe’s design increases the chance it might survive the fiery reentry.
The lander, measuring about 1 metre in diameter and weighing nearly 500 kg, was engineered to withstand the thick carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere of Venus. “It is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth's atmosphere intact,” he wrote in a blog post.
The lander’s parachute system is unlikely to function after decades in space, and experts like Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics say the best outcome would be for the heat shield to fail, causing the object to disintegrate. “If the heat shield holds, it'll reenter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky,” McDowell said in an email cited by AP.
Langbroek added that while the object could fall on populated areas, “chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean,” given the vast water coverage on Earth. This is similar to what happened with Russia’s Phobos-Grunt probe in 2011, which fell into the Pacific Ocean.
Originally, Kosmos 482 was launched just four days after its twin probe, Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus and transmitted data for 50 minutes before succumbing to extreme heat. Kosmos 482 was intended to perform a similar mission, but its failure meant it never left Earth orbit.
Space agencies and satellite trackers are now monitoring the descent closely, with more precise predictions expected in the days leading up to May 10.