Soviet-era spacecraft to reenter Earth’s orbit this month after 50 years could result in disaster – should we be concerned

Launched more than 50 years ago, the Soviet-era Kosmos 482 probe is due to reenter Earth this month in an uncontrolled fashion. Part of a 1972 mission to Venus, the spacecraft was unable to escape Earth's gravity when its rocket failed. Trapped ever since in low Earth orbit, the spacecraft has been slowly falling. Now, its return is being noted by satellite trackers and space agencies around the world. Although the precise place of landing is unclear, specialists forecast the event might take place on May 10, posing little danger to humans. The demise of Kosmos 482 concludes an era of relics of the Cold War period.

Kosmos 482 was launched on 31 March 1972 during a Soviet expedition to Venus. The spacecraft was launched on board an SL-6/A-2-e carrier rocket and was intended to carry a lander probe to Venus' surface. Unfortunately, there was a technical failure in the upper stage of the launch rocket, and the spacecraft did not gain enough speed to escape the gravitational pull of Earth.
Consequently, the spacecraft remained captive in low Earth orbit, never to complete its interplanetary mission. While most of the spacecraft re-entered and crashed to Earth within a few years of the unsuccessful launch, one component—the lander probe—has continued to orbit for more than half a century, gradually descending due to atmospheric drag.

As per predictions by Dutch satellite tracking expert Marco Langbroek, the reentry of the spacecraft is likely to take place on May 10, 2025. However, experts warn any attempt to identify a spot landing at this point would be premature. As the investigation keeps going lower, orbital decay intensifies and cannot be predicted accurately as to when and where exactly reentry will happen. It is only in the last hours—or minutes—prior to reentry that tracking agencies can attempt more reliable forecasts.

The lander module of the spacecraft is around 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds) and has a diameter of around 3 feet (1 meter). It was designed to withstand the scorching heat and pressure of the Venusian atmosphere. Due to this heavy-duty build, scientists estimate that some parts of the probe are likely to endure the blazing heat of entry into Earth's atmosphere. Langbroek estimates that if the object stays in one piece, it will impact the Earth at a velocity of approximately 242 kilometers per hour (150 mph). Sounds frightening, but space analysts remind us that the overall danger to human life is relatively minimal.
Even though the crash was at high speed, Langbroek and fellow space debris specialists advise against panic. The odds of anyone being injured by Kosmos 482 are incredibly small. Actually, Langbroek likened the risk to that of a spurious meteorite drop—a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence but not one that is never seen before. Statistically, an individual is much more likely to be hit by lightning during their lifetime than by falling space debris. But the expert also conceded that the risk, though tiny, is not zero—the spacecraft might hit a populated area or infrastructure.
Kosmos 482 was among various Soviet Venus missions flown in the early 1970s. The mission involved landing probes on Venus to conduct research on the planet's surface and atmosphere. While Kosmos 482 failed, other similar spacecraft from the mission, including Venera 8, succeeded in landings. Throughout the years, most of the original Kosmos 482 payload broke apart or reentered Earth's atmosphere, with some of the debris supposedly landing in New Zealand in 1972. The remaining lander has persisted in space to this day, its descent representing the last act of a Cold War-era mission stuck in time.
Also Read | European Space Agency launched Biomass satellite to monitor forests and climatic studies