Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Mitch Marner can fetch $14M AAV in free agency, opines NHL insider

Toronto Maple Leafs right winger Mitch Marner might be in line for one of the most lucrative contracts in NHL history if he becomes a free agent this offseason. Based on NHL insider reporting and estimates by AFP Analytics, Mitch Marner's next contract may reach a staggering $14 million average annual value (AAV)—a notable increase from recent estimates, thanks to his remarkable play this season and an increasing league salary cap.


Already expected midseason to make $100.6 million on an eight-year contract ($12.6M AAV), Mitch Marner's worth can only go up further based on what happens with the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs and how desperate teams are willing to become in a close free agency battle.
“To the surprise of no one, Marner is the No. 1 pending unrestricted free agent available this summer. Our friends at AFP Analytics projected Marner to earn $100.6 million on an eight-year deal ($12.6 million AAV) in their midseason projections. AFP’s final end-of-season projections are expected to be released in mid-May.” said Frank Seravalli, “Coupling the difficulty in acquiring true difference makers with the rapidly rising salary cap, though, and it’s not difficult to envision a world where Marner earns closer to a $14 million AAV if he makes it to market.”
The conjunction of Mitch Marner's stratospheric level, a sudden rise in the salary cap, and the rarity of genuine game-changers up front all suggest a deal that would reshape the upper echelon of the NHL market.

Even with increasing speculation about his future, Marner has been said to resist waiving his no-trade to a hypothetical Carolina Hurricanes deal. This implies the 26-year-old winger still has a sense of unfinished business remaining in Toronto—or at least is happy to play out the rest of his existing deal before making decisions in free agency.
Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving commented on Marner's significance during a recent Q&A session. “As we all know, Mitch has had a terrific year and he’s a vital part of our team,” Treliving explained. “He’s a big part of what we’re going to try to accomplish in the next 14 games and moving on beyond that. That's really where all of our focus is."
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With less than a month remaining in the regular season, all eyes will be on how the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner perform in the playoffs—and whether the star winger chooses to test the open market, where he could be in line for a historic payday.
If he does, don’t be surprised if that $14 million figure becomes a reality.