gdp growth outlook

The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook revised India's 2025 GDP growth to 6.2%, down from the previously projected 6.5%, due to increased trade tensions and global uncertainty stemming from US tariff policies.

Fitch Ratings has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year by 0.1% to 6.4%, citing concerns over the escalating global trade war. The agency also reduced global growth projections and anticipates weaker growth in China and the US. Despite this, India's growth for fiscal year 2026-27 is maintained at 6.3%.

The World Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 to 6.3%, citing global economic headwinds and domestic policy uncertainties. The IMF also revised its projection downward to 6.2%. Across South Asia, growth projections have been broadly reduced, with the region expected to grow at 5.8% in 2025.

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.5% in FY26, buoyed by lower crude oil prices and controlled inflation, despite global economic headwinds. EY's report suggests strategic measures like anti-dumping policies and diversified crude sourcing to mitigate risks from trade tensions. Continued reforms and investments in technology are crucial for sustained long-term growth.

Singapore has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0-2% due to the anticipated impact of US tariffs on global trade. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has eased monetary policy in response to economic concerns stemming from the US-China trade war. The trade war is expected to negatively affect global trade, economic growth, and business sentiment.

India's economic growth is projected to slow to 6.3 per cent in FY2024-25 due to weak private investment and potential US tariffs, despite matching last year's expansion. Economists highlight structural issues like job creation and stagnant capital expenditure. The RBI is expected to cut rates to support growth amid concerns over business sentiment and inflation.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra affirmed India's commitment to market reforms despite global protectionism, highlighting liberalisation in key sectors and near-total FDI automatic route. He projected India as a dynamic powerhouse, crediting monetary policy for taming inflation with recent rate cuts. India's economy demonstrates resilience with strong growth, aiming to be a developed nation by 2047.

California's economy has surged to become the world's fourth-largest, surpassing Japan with a nominal GDP of $4.1 trillion. Governor Newsom is using this economic strength to challenge President Trump's trade policies, positioning California as a global force. However, the IMF forecasts India will likely overtake California by 2026.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee has reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, shifting its stance to accommodative amid global economic uncertainties. While the GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-26 has been slightly lowered to 6.5%, the CPI inflation outlook remains benign at 4%.

Donald Trump's tariff plans have increased the risks to public finances, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, warning countries to get their spending plans under control and prepare for "sharper" trade-offs. "Fiscal policy now faces a sharper trade-off between reducing debt, building buffers against uncertainties and accommodating spending pressures, all amidst weaker growth prospects, higher financing costs, and heightened risks," it added.

Goldman Sachs reports that while India's economy is relatively insulated from US slowdowns due to lower trade reliance, its stock markets closely mirror US equity movements, especially since 2015. Despite India's economic independence from global swings, the Nifty 50 and S&P 500 show synchronized trends. Caution is advised regarding corporate cost structures amid potential sector-specific impacts.

China's Q1 2025 GDP growth exceeded expectations at 5.4%, fueled by strong industrial output and retail sales. However, this boost is likely temporary as newly imposed US tariffs threaten to stall exports and overall economic momentum. Analysts anticipate a slowdown and have downgraded growth forecasts, urging policymakers to implement further stimulus measures to mitigate the impact.

Uncertain tariff policies and trade war tensions are challenging companies in providing financial outlooks. While some tariffs are postponed for negotiation, businesses struggle to assess the impact on costs and revenues. Companies like Chipotle, Tesla, Akzo Nobel, Boston Scientific, Boeing, and AT&T are navigating the uncertainty with varying strategies, from localizing production to absorbing costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that President Trump's tariffs could fuel inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a dilemma for the Fed's dual mandate. Markets reacted negatively, with stocks falling as investors perceived Powell's stance as more hawkish than anticipated. The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, navigating uncertainty caused by trade policy shifts.

Germany's economy faces stagnation in 2025. The government forecasts zero growth, down from earlier predictions. Donald Trump's trade policies are a major factor, and political uncertainty after the February election also contributes. Germany aims to boost the economy through increased defence spending. Parliament plans to elect Friedrich Merz as the next leader in May.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee convened this week, with expectations of a 25 bps repo rate cut to 6% amidst easing inflation. The decision, influenced by global economic headwinds and potential impacts from US tariffs, will be revealed on April 9, 2025.

Taiwan anticipates economic challenges due to new US tariffs. Government officials predict a GDP growth reduction for 2025. The tariffs could push GDP growth below 3 percent. Legislators are questioning the adequacy of current government support. Taiwan maintains good relations with Washington. The government has assembled a task force to manage the situation.

Amidst global economic uncertainties fueled by trade tariffs, the RBI has cut the repo rate to 6.5% and adopted an accommodative stance, signaling a potential for further rate reductions. While aiming for growth-supportive monetary policy, the RBI acknowledges challenges and revised downwards GDP growth projections for FY 2025-26 to 6.5%.

India aims to accelerate trade agreement talks with the US after a temporary pause on reciprocal tariffs, while the US increases duties on China. India was among the first to initiate trade discussions with the US, targeting $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.7% in FY25, driven by domestic demand, rural income growth, and moderating inflation, according to ADB. The RBI revised its growth forecast to 6.5%. Key sectors like services, agriculture, and manufacturing are expected to contribute significantly. Risks include US tariffs and global economic uncertainty.