IPL playoffs scenarios: With 15 matches to go, MI have 75% chance of progressing — odds for each team explained

With 15 games remaining in the IPL 2025 league stage, Chennai Super Kings, Rajasthan Royals and Sunrisers Hyderabad are already out of contention for the playoffs.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Punjab Kings and Gujarat Titans are almost sure to make the knock-out stage and Mumbai Indians are also strong contenders, but Delhi Capitals still have a fair chance and Lucknow Super Giants and Kolkata Knight Riders slim chances.
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There remain 32,768 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the seven remaining in the race.

Who's that IPL player?
We look at the probabilities:


How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 32,768 possible combinations of results remaining with 15 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, RCB finish in the top four in 32,072 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 97.9% chance. In 25,768 of them they end up first or second, singly or jointly, translating to a 78.6% chance.