Slim is out, fat is in: Over half the world set to be overweight or obese by 2050; how it will impact health

The world is getting fatter by the day and in the next 25 years over half of us could be overweight or obese, a new study published in The Lancet journal has warned. Not that this can't be reversed, but it would demand a series of bold and drastic measures to slow the obesity rates and prevent a looming epidemic of chronic diseases.
The global study covering more than 200 countries is a stark reminder that not taking urgent action or active steps to curb obesity can likely lead to early deaths, disease, and burden already vulnerable healthcare systems.
The study reveals that 2.11 billion adults aged 25 and older, along with 493 million children and young people aged 5 to 24, are now overweight or obese — a sharp rise from 731 million adults and 198 million younger individuals in 1990. The analysis says that not taking steps to control obesity rates would affect more than half of those aged 25 or above worldwide (3.8 billion) and about a third of all children and young people (746 million) by 2050. Obesity may increase at an alarming rate (121%) among children and younger people, with numbers crossing 360 million by 2050.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Prof Emmanuela Gakidou, from the University of Washington.
Researchers involved in the study fear a huge spike in obesity rates in the remaining years of the decade, particularly in lower-income countries.

The current efforts to tackle obesity are surely not enough, as by 2021, almost half the global adult population - a billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 or older - were already in the overweight or obese category. Since 1990, the share of both men and women living with these conditions has doubled. Reversal of this trend would only be possible with concerted efforts and urgent action.
Now, the researchers involved in the study predict that if the current trend continues global rates of overweight and obese adults would reach 57.4% for men and 60.3% for women by 2050.
It has been found that the top 3 countries with the largest overweight or obese population in 2050 would be - China (627 million), India (450 million) and the USA (214 million).
The others in the top 8 include: Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million) and Egypt (41 million).
However, if these numbers are looked at from the population growth point of view, it has been forecasted that the obesity rates in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by more than 250% to 522 million.
Nigeria may triple its obesity rates, going by the trend - from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050. This would make it the country with the fourth-largest population of adults who are overweight or obese.

Obesity crisis has intensified in children over the decades. Researchers say that early obesity in children is becoming a norm which could increase risk of type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease and cancer.
The study highlights high-income countries as an example, showing that around 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by age 25. This figure rose to 16% for those born in the 1990s and is expected to hit 25% for men born in 2015.
Prof Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), at the University of Washington in the US who led the research said: "[Governments] can use our country specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.

"The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure," she added.
Excess weight could increase risk of several diseases and illnesses including heart disease, type 2 diabetes, stroke, musculoskeletal disorders like osteoarthritis, and some cancers. These conditions may lead to early death or disability.
Obesity directly raises the risk of cardiovascular issues like high cholesterol, type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, and sleep disorders, according to a study published in Circulation journal. It also increases the risk of developing and dying from heart disease, even without other risk factors. Recent research highlights abdominal obesity (measured by waist circumference) as a stronger predictor of heart disease than BMI. Advances in body imaging now show that visceral fat — fat stored around organs — is a key indicator of poor heart health.
Obesity makes it harder for the body to regulate blood sugar, dramatically increasing diabetes risk.
Excess body weight and obesity are major risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). It is important for people with type 2 diabetes to control obesity by making lifestyle changes and take other steps to shed weight.
Excess weight can put extra stress on joints, leading to cartilage damage and pain, contributing to osteoarthritis and limiting movement. According to John Hopkins Arthritis Centre, just 10 pounds of extra weight can raise the force on the knee by 30-60 pounds with each step. Shedding weight can ease the pressure on joints and support mobility.

Obesity is linked to cancers like breast, colon, and liver cancer, with chronic inflammation playing a role. Being obese or overweight can lead to long-term inflammation and higher than normal levels of insulin, insulin-like growth factor, and sex hormones, as per CDC. These changes may cause cancer.
Healthy diet: Encourage balanced diets rich in vegetables, fruits, whole grains, and lean proteins, while limiting ultra-processed foods and sugary drinks.
Exercise: Recommend at least 150 minutes of moderate exercise per week — including walking, cycling, swimming, or any movement people enjoy.
Better food labelling: Clear, easy-to-understand nutrition labels help consumers make informed choices about calories, fat, sugar, and portion sizes.
Encourage portion control: Educate people about realistic portion sizes to avoid mindless overeating.
Tax sugary drinks and unhealthy foods: Fiscal policies like soda taxes have shown success in reducing consumption of high-calorie, low-nutrition foods.
Public awareness campaigns: Educate the public about the health risks of obesity and the benefits of maintaining a healthy weight.
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