IPL playoffs scenarios: With 13 matches to go, Delhi Capitals have 58.2% chance of progressing — odds for each team explained

Shankar Raghuraman / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / Updated: May 8, 2025, 07:49 IST

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With 13 matches remaining, CSK, RR, and SRH are out of playoff contention. GT, RCB, and PBKS are almost certain to qualify, while MI and DC have a decent chance. LSG and KKR face slim odds, but with 8,192 possible outcomes, nothing is guaranteed. GT has a 99.3% chance of finishing in the top four and a 74.

IPL playoffs scenarios: With 13 matches to go, Delhi Capitals have 58.2% chance of progressing — odds for each team explained

Image credit: BCCI/IPL

NEW DELHI: With 13 games remaining in the league stage, CSK, RR and SRH are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT, RCB and PBKS are almost sure to make the knock-out stage, but MI and DC still have an even chance while LSG and KKR have slim chances.

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There remain 8,192 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the seven remaining in the race. We look at the probabilities:

Team	Best case scenario	Worst case scenario	Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4	Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2
RCB	Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one	End up 5^th.Can happen if they lose all their remaining games	99.7	76.1
GT	Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games and RCB lose one or more	Finish 5^th by losing all remaining games	99.3	74.7
PBKS	Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one	Finish 6^th by losing all remaining games	90.2	44.5
MI	Sole topper with 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose their remaining games, PBKS lose two and DC one	Finish 7^th by losing all remaining games	62.0	15.9
DC	Sole topper with 19 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and RCB, GT and PBKS lose two each	Finish 7^th by losing all the remaining games	58.2	14.8
LSG	Finish tied 2^nd on 16 pts with RCB, MI and GT. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose all of theirs, MI lose one and either PBKS also lose all their games or DC wins no more than one	Finish 8^th by losing all the remaining games	8.6	0.1
KKR	Finish tied for 4^th on 15 with DC and possibly PBKS. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose theirs, PBKS lose two, DC and MI lose one each	Finish joint 7^th by losing all the remaining games	2.1	0.0

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 8,192 possible combinations of results remaining with 13 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.

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For instance, GT finish in the top four in 8,136 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 99.3% chance. In 6,120 of them they end up first or second, singly or jointly, translating to a 74.7% chance.

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