'Fence sitters could ... ': Why Waqf politics may help NDA in Bihar

NEW DELHI: Nitish Kumar's support for the Waqf Amendment Bill in Lok Sabha marks a significant shift in his politics ahead of the assembly elections in Bihar later this year. Nitish, who has been the dominant partner of the NDA in Bihar for nearly two decades, is perhaps for the first time following the politics of his now-dominant ally - the BJP.
Interestingly, while the BJP, and even the opposition parties in Bihar, may make some gains from Waqf politics, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) will keep its fingers crossed - as the party had, over the years, found considerable support among the minorities in the state despite its alliance with the saffron party.
Little wonder, while the BJP went all out to push the legislation as a much-needed reform to end corruption and land grab in the name of Waqf, the JD(U) leaders were on the defensive announcing their party's support to the Bill.
"Nitish Kumar has been working in Bihar for the last 19 years. During this time, the work he has done for the Muslim community is also visible. Our party had said that it should not be implemented with retrospective effect, and we hope that the government will consider it... As long as Nitish Kumar is in politics, the interests of the people will be protected," JD(U) MP Sanjay Jha had said on Tuesday highlighting his party's stand on the Waqf Amendment Bill.
So, why is Nitish Kumar helping the BJP pass a Bill that many Muslims oppose?
Political analyst NK Choudhary says Nitish Kumar knows exactly what he is doing. "Polarisation is a reality in today's politics and Nitish Kumar knows that Waqf politics will make this divide stronger in Bihar. The way some opposition parties are blindly backing the Muslims on the Waqf Bill may see the fence-sitters, a lot of whom are Hindus, veering towards the NDA," NK Choudhary says.
"Nitish may lose some Muslim votes, but that will be compensated by the gains the BJP makes so overall the NDA may in fact end up making gains in Bihar," he says.
Another political analyst Kumar Vijay has an interesting take on Nitish Kumar's decision to back the Waqf Bill. "Nitish Kumar backing the Waqf Bill is perhaps a well thought out strategy. Nitish is protecting the interests of his next generation (his son Nishant) and the JD(U) as a party is preparing for politics beyond Nitish Kumar," says Kumar Vijay.
"Nitish may lose some Muslim votes, but he knows the future prospects of his party is safer with the BJP than the RJD as Tejashwi is already an established player and his son would be completely overshadowed in any possible alliance with Lalu's party," he says.
"The BJP also stands to gain by keeping the JD(U) in its fold as caste survey has revealed that Nitish Kumar's support base in the state remains quite significant," he adds.
Interestingly, both the analysts feel that Waqf Bill may end up helping the NDA in Bihar. Assembly elections in Bihar are still some months away. The opposition's Mahagathbandhan would go all out to corner the NDA, especially Nitish Kumar over his support to the Waqf Bill. While the BJP may not mind this opposition offensive given the potential electoral gains that may come its way, it will be interesting to see how Nitish Kumar handles the pressure in the run up to elections.