Why are Jatavs so crucial in UP’s politics now?

LUCKNOW: Ever since the Bahujan Samaj Party's vote share plummeted to a meagre 9.33% in UP, Azad Party chief Chandrashekhar Azad won the Nagina Lok Sabha election and SP-Congress alliance did well in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, political parties are eyeing the Jatav vote bank within the Dalit community.
Jatavs represent the largest Dalit segment in Uttar Pradesh. The enthusiastic participation of various political parties in Ambedkar Jayanti celebrations on Monday reflects their keen interest.
The substantial Jatav population, estimated at 15% among Dalits, has prompted political parties in UP to actively pursue their support. Each party is making concentrated efforts to attract this significant voting bloc.
The significance of the Jatav community has led to speculation about the BJP potentially appointing a Dalit as UP BJP chief before the Assembly polls 2027 and Lok Sabha polls 2029, although this remains uncertain.
BSP leader Mayawati has increased her activities to retain loyal supporters amidst growing challenges. The party faces pressure from two directions: Chandrashekhar Azad's rising influence in West UP, particularly evident in the 2022 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls where BSP secured minimal victories, and the Congress party's historical connection with Jatav voters predating BSP's emergence.
Political analysts suggest that Congress could naturally fill the vacuum left by BSP's weakened presence in UP, especially after the SP-Congress alliance secured 43 seats, including six Congress victories.
However, questions persist about Congress's ability to maintain or improve this performance, a failure of which would create opportunities for SP, BJP, Apna Dal and RLD.
Whilst BJP has organised a 10-day Ambedkar Jayanti campaign, RLD and Apna Dal are focusing on expanding their SC community leadership. The SP has intensified its outreach among Dalits, bolstered by its unprecedented success of 37 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Discussions continue regarding whether SP's improved Dalit support stems from its Congress alliance or dedicated party efforts.
The SP-Congress alliance's success in securing 43 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 has prompted BSP to increase its visibility. Mayawati's nephew Akash Anand's fluctuating position within BSP is viewed as part of efforts to rejuvenate the party before the 2027 Assembly elections.
Despite frequently falling in and out of Mayawati's favour, Akash Anand remains crucial to BSP for attracting youth support and countering Chandrashekhar Azad's growing youth appeal. However, only time will tell who emerges stronger in this pursuit.
Meanwhile, political parties continue their efforts to secure Jatav support. Success may vary, but none wish to alienate this politically influential community, whose numerical strength in UP can significantly impact any party's electoral prospects